February 2022 Decarbonisati n Technolo gy Pow ring the Transition to Sustainable Fue s & Energy
TRANSITION STRATEGIES FOR LOW CARBON TRANSPORT
ENERGY EFFICIENCY: LOW HANGING FRUIT FOR ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MUST SUPPORT BUSINESS DRIVERS
USING CAPTURED CARBON
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Join us to explore the cutting edge of global decarbonisation technologies, solutions, and supporting infrastructures. We bring together a cross-market community to maximise learning opportunities and facilitate collaboration between energy producers, their Registration is now open!
biggest customers and the technology experts developing solutions for all.
Our audience draws experts from: Downstream Oil and Gas Renewable energy production Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs) Energy companies Technology providers Governments and infrastructure
Agenda at a glance
Day one 09.30
Check in at the IET London (and on the virtual platform)
10.00 13.00 14.00 18.30
Conference sessions
Networking lunch with Solutions Showcase
Conference sessions
Event reception and dinner held at the iconic Radio Rooftop
Day two 09.30
Conference sessions Networking lunch
13.00 14.30
Event closes
Speakers include:
Joachim von Scheele Linde
Matthew Williamson BP
Lara Young Costain
Jean-Marc Sohier Concawe
Angus Gillespie Global CCS Institute
Maurits van Tol Johnson Matthey
Miguel A. Calderón Cepsa
Miguel Ángel García Carreño Repsol
Lewis Barlow Scottish Government
Guloren Turan Global CCS Institute
Jean-Pierre Burzynski IFP Energies Nouvelles
André Faaij TNO
Joseph Howe Energy
Chris Manson Whitton Progressive Energy
Research Institute
Our programme
We provide information, benchmarking examples and cutting edge technology insights, all focused on the most urgent hurdles to reducing emissions. Sessions and workshops include: • Navigating your business to a low carbon future: How to create a realistic roadmap • Technology you can and should implement tomorrow: A whistle-stop tour of technology already on the table • Cross-Industry Learning: Understanding the commerciality of CCUS and its potential role in your decarbonisation portfolio • Deploying hydrogen within process industries: Using collaboration to the current best technology in an efficient way • Hydrogen collaboration in practice: Creating clusters and coalitions to deliver workable projects • Positioning your investment strategy within the current and future policy landscape • Technology Deep Dive: The cutting edge of the carbon product market • How are our value chains changing? We ask big customers what they expect from their cement, steel, and fuel products in future.
Our team is here for you
There’s a lot more information that we’d be happy to share. If you have a question about the programme or would like to find out about opportunities to make an impact, please get in touch!
Christina Wood, Event Development Director E: christina.wood@emap.com
Paul Mason, Business Development Director E: info@decarbonisationtechnology.com
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Contents
February 2022
Resilience in the transition to low (zero) emissions vehicles Robin Nelson Consulting Editor, Decarbonisation Technology
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Progressing decarbonisation discussions at the IMO Eddy Van Bouwel EvBo Consult
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Green hydrogen to boost a sustainable economy in India Dr MP Sukumaran Nair Former Secretary to Chief Minister, Kerala and Chairman, Public Sector Restructuring & Audit Board, Govt of Kerala
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Digitally enabled decarbonisation Craig Harclerode AVEVA
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Renewable energy transition: challenges and opportunities Jim Thomson, Marlene Motyka and Suzanna Sanborn Deloitte
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Energy efficiency: the first step towards decarbonisation Xavier d’Hubert XDH-energy
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Recovering CO 2 and H 2 S from waste streams Mahin Rameshni and Stephen Santo Rameshni & Associates Technology & Engineering (RATE) USA
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Realisation of a carbon negative combustor for gas turbines Pietro Bartocci and Alberto Abad Instituto de Carboquímica (ICB-CSIC)
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Addressing Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction targets Robert Ohmes, Grant Jacobson, Roberto Tomotaki, Greg Zoll and Fred Lea Becht
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Safe oxygen production for Giga-scale hydrogen generation Stephen B Harrison sbh4
68 Decarbonising the economy: no-regrets pathways to hydrogen Wayne Bridger, BOC UK & Ireland BOC UK & Ireland
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CCUS: status and priorities for research and development Dr Himmat Singh Scientist ‘G’ & Prof (Retd)
80 Decarbonisation and digital twins: simulation for sustainable shipping Patrick Ryan ABS (American Bureau of Shipping)
Decarbonisation through innovation Watlow HELIMAX heat exchanger
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ACCELERATING DECARBONISATION TOGETHER
The world’s energy system is changing. To solve the challenges those changes present, Shell Catalysts & Technologies is developing its Decarbonisation Solutions portfolio — to provide services and integrated value chains of technologies, designed to help industries navigate their path through the energy transition. Our experienced teams of consultants and engineers apply our diverse, unique owner-operator expertise to co-create pathways and technology solutions to address your specific Decarbonisation ambitions — creating a cleaner way forward together. Learn more at catalysts.shell.com/decarbonisation
Decarbonisation Solutions
W elcome to the third edition of The range of subjects covered in this edition demonstrate how broad and all-encompassing the energy transition is. While the focus of Decarbonisation Technology will continue to be on the technologies for, and progress with, the transformation of the oil and gas industry, it is important to understand how the transition is reshaping energy demand in the different transport sectors and in energy intensive industries. Although a viable low carbon alternative in some advanced economies, the availability of renewable Decarbonisation Technology and thanks to our readers, authors and advertisers, who together make this magazine a success. electricity is just one of the constraints that will limit the penetration of electric vehicles in many countries over the next 2-3 decades. The availability of biofuels and developing capacity for synthetic or e-fuels, including hydrogen, are important considerations for road transport as well as marine and aviation. Hydrogen demand will be driven by the decarbonisation of high temperature furnaces for steel and aluminium production. Hydrogen is essential in the manufacture of ammonia, a feedstock for fertilisers. Cement manufacturers are likely to be one of the main stakeholders for carbon capture and storage networks, even as they develop low carbon alternatives for cement. We are excited to announce that DecarbonisationTechnology.com is now live. Our enhanced website provides quick and simple access to the solutions you need to navigate the transition to sustainable fuels and energy, including a constantly growing database of technical articles, company literature, product brochures, webinars, videos and news. Click here to access this essential new resource and find information on tackling decarbonisation. The launch event of the Decarbonisation Technology Summits will take place in London on 18-19 May 2022. The series will explore the cutting edge of global decarbonisation technologies, solutions and supporting infrastructure. This brand-new summit series aims to provide actionable insights and ready-to-implement solutions for the next steps in the energy transition. More details and registration options can be found at decarbonisationtechnologysummit.com
Managing Editor Rachel Storry editor@decarbonisationtechnology.com tel +44 (0)7786 136440 Consulting Editor Robin Nelson robin.nelson@ decarbonisationtechnology.com Business Development Director Paul Mason info@decarbonisationtechnology.com tel +44 844 5888 771
Managing Director Richard Watts richard.watts@emap.com
Graphics Peter Harper
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Cover Story Oilrefinerywith several distillation columns
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Resilience in the transition to low (zero) emissions vehicles Low carbon fuels can decarbonise the existing vehicle fleet, buying time to invest in the infrastructure to support the optimumcombination of hybrid and BEVs
Robin Nelson Consulting Editor, Decarbonisation Technology
C OP26 calls for the acceleration of actions over the next decade to stay below a maximum average global increase of 2˚C and keep the 1.5˚C target in sight. The transition to zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs) is one such action. In their 2022 action plan, The Zero Emission Vehicles Transition Council (ZEVTC) aims to accelerate the global transition to ZEVs by making them accessible, affordable, and sustainable in all regions by 2030 (ZEVTC, 2021). But will we ever achieve a zero emissions vehicle? Perhaps the most common definition of a ZEV is a vehicle that produces zero exhaust emissions (CO 2 and lower amounts of pollutants such as nitrous oxides and particulate matter). The problem is that such a definition is incomplete as it does not account for emissions during the production of the energy carrier used to power the vehicle or during the production of the vehicle. From a climate perspective, this is a serious omission. Expanding the definition to include emissions from the production of the energy carrier would lead to a ZEV being defined as “a vehicle that has been powered using a renewable electricity supply over the operating lifetime of the vehicle”. This definition includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and direct hydrogen-powered vehicles when the hydrogen is produced from electrolysis using renewable electricity (green hydrogen). However, given that in 2020 there were no regions of the world where the electricity supply was fully renewable, such a definition seems to be full of future promise (see Figure 1 ).
Carbon emissions from electricity production In the recent COP26, the tensions on the issue of phasing down coal power are important in this context: • China is one of the largest markets for electric vehicles, but coal power constitutes 60% of the installed electricity generation capacity in 2021. • Although India is making progress in the move to renewable power, coal power comprises 55.8% of installed power capacity in 2021 (IEA, 2021). D’Cunha reported that in 2018, 31 million homes in India were still without electricity (D’Cunha, 2018). Around 700 million people in India gained access to electricity between 2000 and 2018, and in March 2019 the Government of India declared it had achieved the full electrification of all households except those that refused access (IEA, 2021). • In 2021, over 640 million Africans (40%) do not yet have access to electricity (African Development Bank, 2021). In sub-Saharan Africa, a lack of electrification means that renewables will not displace a significant share of fossil-based energy resources before 2050 (DNV, 2021). • While EVs in China, India, and some African cities are important in the fight to end local air pollution, they should not be considered ZEVs unless the emissions from coal power stations are abated using carbon capture and storage or usage technologies. Carbon emissions during vehicle production When CO 2 emissions are considered over the entire life-cycle of the vehicle, the term ZEV is even more of a misnomer. Volvo states that emissions during production of a Volvo XC40 with an ICE amount to 17 tonnes, whilst the C40 Recharge (BEV) version produces 25 tonnes of
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Figure 1 Regional electricity generation by fuel 2020
Source: BP Statistical review of World Energy 2021 (BP, 2021)
CO 2 , including 7 tonnes from the manufacture of the battery (This is money, 2021). Many automotive manufacturers are working to reduce emissions during manufacturing of their vehicles, for instance: • By converting to renewable energy for the production of all components and for assembly of the vehicles. • By increasing the share of recyclable materials (metals, plastics, glass) in their vehicles. • Reusing EV batteries in lower demand applications as well as funding R&D on the recycling of battery materials. Emissions from mining, refining, and production of the materials would also need to be eliminated for the vehicle to be zero emissions on a life-cycle basis. A lithium-ion battery would typically use 8 kg of lithium, 35 kg nickel, 20 kg manganese, and 14 kg cobalt (Castelvecchi, 2021). The proposed lithium mine at Thacker Pass USA is expected to produce 60,000 tonnes of lithium and emit 152,713 tonnes of CO 2 annually (Bosler, 2021). Mining 8 kg of lithium will release 20 kg CO 2 which, although very low, is not zero. From a global perspective, a ZEV would be
better defined as a low emissions vehicle (LEV). Instead of focusing solely on BEVs, LEVs could include vehicles fuelled by hydrogen and plug in- hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). For at least the next two decades, self-generating or mild hybrid vehicles (HEVs) using the latest generation of internal combustion engine (ICE), when fuelled by certified renewable low carbon liquid fuels, can also make an important contribution in countries or regions lacking a renewable electricity supply. The International Council for Clean Transport (ICCT) too readily dismiss PHEVs, as “given current driving behaviour they are not a very low GHG solution” (ICCT, 2021). This is in relation to reported behaviours in which drivers of PHEVs “rely too much on the gasoline engine for this pathway to be a long-term climate solution”. If we consider the need for a rapid and accelerated transition to LEVs globally, it is imperative we learn from initial experiences with new technologies. A campaign to educate and support PHEV drivers is likely to be more effective than simply dismissing the PHEV as an option. Investment to install more EV charging points should overcome one of the main issues, that of finding a convenient charging
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emissions) relies on a number of assumptions, none of which are predetermined across all the EU countries: Accelerated investment in charging infrastructure for EVs is sufficient to meet demand and overcome fears of ‘range anxiety’. Roadside and pavement (sidewalk) EV charging infrastructure should take into consideration the needs of pedestrians and cyclists as well as the motorist. Accelerated investment in renewable electricity supply can satisfy the increasing demand from the transition to electric vehicles (both BEVs and PHEVs, together termed EVs) as well as the decarbonisation of energy for industrial processes, commercial and domestic buildings. Investment in renewable energy storage (RES) capacity, including batteries, hydrogen, and thermal storage, is sufficient to ensure resilience for periods where peaks in demand and troughs in supply (intermittency) are coincidental. During the transition, reserves of fossil power should be maintained. More affordable EVs and/or alternative transport models, such as ride sharing, have
point, a commonly reported concern for both PHEV and BEV drivers. Furthermore, the latest generation of PHEVs have batteries that can cover 100 km in electric mode. The European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAC) points out that “the negative impacts of making possibly wrong decisions too early, are significant”. Europe is playing a leading role in the transition of road transport. The EU encourages car makers to increase sales of EVs through a regulation that limits the average CO 2 emissions allowed for the vehicles sold in a given year. The current limit (allowance) is 95 gCO 2 /km and a heavy penalty is imposed on car makers that exceed the limit (European Commission, 2009). The EU is considering reducing this allowance to zero by 2035. In addition, several European countries (and California) have announced bans on new sales of ICEVs (see Figure 2 ). The mainstream car manufacturers have responded to these strong regulatory signals by extending their range with BEVs and some have dropped ICEVs from their range. Test assumptions to build resilience in the transition However, a successful transition (with success defined as a real reduction in life-cycle carbon
2030 Iceland 2025 Norway
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2025 2050 International Zero-Emission Vehicle Alliance (IZEVA) 2050 2040 2035 2030 Target to allow the sale or registration of new BEVs, and FCEVs only
Target to allow the sale or registration of new BEVs, FCEVs and PHEVs only
2030 2035
Figure 2 Global summary of governments with official targets to phase out new sales of internal combustion engines by a certain date Source: https://ukcop26.org/transport
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emerged and been accepted by the public. A sustainable supply of raw materials for batteries and renewable energy infrastructure does not become a constraint. Roadmaps for net-zero road transport should be resilient in case progress with any single solution is insufficient or in the event that one or more of these assumptions prove to be false. Alternative technologies that achieve the same net-zero objective can increase the resilience of such roadmaps. Learning and feedback from early adopters can also increase resilience in the system. ERTRAC is a European technology platform supported by the European Commission. It operates as a public/private partnership (PPP), promoting research by the European Commission, academia, and private companies, including the automotive and fuels industries. ERTRAC (ERTRAC, 2021) explored a number of scenarios for decarbonisation of road transport and concluded that: • The complete and robust carbon neutrality of road transport (light and heavy duty) will require a mix of technologies, where electrification is the key element for the reduction of CO 2 emissions. These technologies include BEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and advanced hybrid powertrains.
• The carbon-neutral production of electricity is a prerequisite for carbon-neutral road transport in all fleet and fuel scenarios. They also highlight that the mix of these powertrain options will strongly depend on the development of the infrastructure (charging infrastructure, ERS, hydrogen filling stations, production capacities for renewable fuels, etc.). ERTRAC developed a timeline for the transition of light transport (motorcycles and micro- vehicles), passenger vehicles, and light and heavy- duty commercial vehicles, based on technical neutrality and a long-term perspective (ERTRAC, 2020). Figure 3 illustrates the ERTRAC timeline for the evolution of the EU passenger vehicle parc over the next three decades. As part of its Low Carbon Pathways programme, Concawe explored the optimum level of vehicle electrification using scenarios with different levels of battery production capacity within the EU market (Concawe, 2021) (Shafiei, 2021). Various reports forecast growth from the current (2021) EU battery capacity of 0.037 TWh/yr ranging from 0.5 TW/h up to 0.95 TWh/yr by 2030. Concawe compared battery capacity scenarios ranging from 0.05-0.15 TWh/yr through to more than 0.8 TWh/yr (see Figure 4 ).
The EV share of new vehicle registrations grows to nearly 50%, although the share in the on - the - road fleet (vehicle parc) remains below 25%
All new vehicle registrations are for EVs. BEV and PHEV account for more than 90% of the vehicle parc
EVs are the “new normal” dominating the vehicle parc (>50%)
The dominant powertrain for passenger vehicles.
Functionality and economy of BEVs is attractive for urban use, less so for long distances. The electric only range increases up to 100km so that one is able to drive emissions free in urban areas. Become ‘clean’ under all conditions (full compliance with air quality regulations). Further emissions. These are still the prime mover for long - distance road journeys. A niche market application. e ciency improvements continue to reduce CO
Are becoming omnipresent in urban environments and mor e attractive for long - distance trips. The only applications for the ICE. Their e ciency continues to increase. They are still essential for long-distance trips. When not in a PHEV these will be for niche applications and non- EU markets. Some niche applications for direct H combustion. Small share of private vehicles but a relevant share in commercial vehicles such as taxis.
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A consumer choice.
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Small private, yet large commercial eet shares.
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Source: ERTRAC decarbonisation roadmap 2050
2020 – 2030
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Figure 3 ERTRAC timeline for the decarbonisation of the passenger vehicle parc
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Figure 4 Optimal vehicle sales mix minimising well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions, subject to a battery cap in 2030 when the utility factor is greater than 45%. Source: Concawe 2021
electricity mix offers significant savings in CO 2 emissions. The ZEVTC refer to a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the greenhouse gas emissions from a variety of passenger car powertrains and fuels by ICCT (ICCT, 2021). ICCT dismissed alternatives to BEVs as it was concerned “there is not likely to be sufficient supply of very low GHG biofuels, biogas, and e-fuels to decarbonize internal combustion engine vehicles”. This is consistent with a recent report from IEA, which finds that high commodity prices present a near-term obstacle, so, from a global perspective, biofuels for transport are “not on track” (IEA, 2021). A report by Imperial College London comes to a more positive conclusion for the EU, that there will be sufficient sustainable low carbon liquid fuels to support the decarbonisation of light and heavy- duty road transport as well as the anticipated demand from marine and aviation. Imperial analysed the sustainable biomass availability for all markets in the EU and concluded that, given the right support and investment, advanced and waste-based biofuel production can reach 46-97 Mtoe for 2030 and 71-176 Mtoe by 2050 (Imperial College London, 2021). Any strategies and implementation plans that
• Once battery capacity reaches 0.8 TWh/yr or more (the ‘unconstrained’ scenario), a passenger vehicle parc comprising 100% BEVs was found to be the optimum solution for reducing CO 2 emissions. Hybrids can increase resilience during the transition In all other scenarios, the optimum sales mix shows the importance of HEV and PHEVs for reductions in CO 2 emissions: • Under scenarios with a low/medium production capacity (less than 0.4 TWh/yr) and low PHEV utility factors (<45%), a combination of HEV and PHEV sales was the most effective option in reducing CO 2 emissions. • In scenarios with battery capacity up to 0.55 TWh/yr, PHEVs with a 100 km electric-driving range were found to be the key component in the optimal sales mix. Increasing the utility factor (the proportion of distance travelled in electric mode) of PHEVs to greater than 45% was found to be the most immediate and accessible way to decrease CO 2 emissions in the short term. Beyond 2030, increasing the contribution from low carbon fuels along with a decrease in the carbon intensity of the
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help raise biofuel demand, in all cases including rigorous sustainability criteria (IEA, 2021). Within the European context, a range of complementary technologies in vehicle powertrains together with low carbon fuels increases the resilience needed to manage the identified uncertainties. From a global perspective, there is no single solution that fits in every nation, or across different regions within a nation. Indeed, the ZEVTC recognises that “national contexts and policy approaches may differ”. In the transition to low emissions transport, sustainable, low carbon fuels used in hybrid vehicles are complementary to, rather than competitive with, BEVs. Considering the optimum combinations of advanced powertrain technologies (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs) together with low carbon energy carriers (renewable electricity and sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels) will give the optimum outcome for different situations. As the ERTRAC roadmap illustrates, national roadmaps for the decarbonisation of transport should be progressive and managed, allowing the combination of drivetrains and energy carriers to evolve as vital infrastructure is established. These roadmaps can support the ZEVTC objective to ensure a “global transition where no country or community is left behind”.
aim to deliver future outcomes should include a process to identify the uncertainties and associated risks. The decarbonisation of road transport is no exception. The use of scenarios to test resilience against the identified uncertainties and risks can help: • The assumptions for renewable electricity capacity growth, developing charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing capacity, already discussed, represent the main uncertainties with respect to EVs. • Global supply chains for metals including cobalt and nickel may become constraints in the future (McKinsey, 2018), (Ricardo, 2018), leading to R&D programmes that reduce reliance on these metals (CNBC, 2021), (Energy, 2021). • Uncertainties for low carbon liquid fuels include: Commercialisation of new technologies to expand non-food crop biofuel production, without indirect land use change (ILUC) concerns. Management of the supply chain and logistics related to collection of biomass and waste for sustainable biofuels. The level of investment in carbon capture storage and utilisation and to scale up hydrogen production for synthetic low carbon e-fuels. Regulatory support that includes the contribution of low carbon liquid and gaseous fuels in vehicle emissions standards. Regulatory measures should include sustainable low carbon fuels The IEA proposes a combination of regulatory measures such as mandates, low carbon fuel standards, and GHG intensity targets, together with carbon pricing and financial incentives to
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Robin Nelson robin.nelson@decarbonisation technology.com
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Progressing decarbonisation discussions at the IMO IMO plans to incorporate short, mid- and long-termmeasures in its GHG reduction strategy by 2023, including certification for low and zero carbonmarine fuels
Eddy Van Bouwel EvBo Consult
A t COP26 there was quite a bit of discussion on GHG emissions from international shipping. Demand for shipping has increased substantially since the turn of the century, leading to concerns of ever increasing emissions in the absence of ambitious regulations (see Figure 1 ) (Jasper Faber, 2020). However, emissions from international shipping – like international aviation – are not covered by the Paris Agreement and are thus not included in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) developed by the Parties to the Paris Agreement. Emissions from international shipping are regulated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations body, headquartered in London, which currently has 175 member countries. GHG emissions are dealt
with under Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention (The International Convention for Prevention of Pollution from ships). Boxout 1 provides some further details on IMO conventions. What has been done already? MARPOL Annex VI already includes several instruments that regulate energy efficiency of shipping, put in place specifically with the objective to limit GHG emissions. As a first step, in 2011, a dedicated chapter was added to Annex VI with mandatory technical and operational energy efficiency measures. The Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new ships and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) requirements entered into force in January 2013. The EEDI has been most impactful, as it requires
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Figure 1 International shipping emissions and trade metrics, indexed in 2008 EEOI = Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator, AER = Annual Efficiency Ratio in gram CO 2 /Dwt/nm Source: 4th IMO GHG Study, Jasper Faber, 2020
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IMO Conventions
that new ships meet a minimum energy efficiency level. Reference lines have been established for different ship types and sizes based on the average efficiency of ships built between 2000 and 2010. With phase 1 starting in 2015, new ships in general had to be 10% more efficient than the reference line, with this target increasing a further 10% every five years until 2025 (see Figure 2 ) (IMO, 2016). Shipbuilders have been successful at developing more efficient designs, as well as using lower design speeds, such that for some sectors the 2025 target date for a 30% reduction versus the reference line has been brought forward to 2022. Figure 3 illustrates this with attained EEDI data for container vessels (IMO, 2018). In 2016, the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the IMO agreed to the establishment of a Data Collection System (DCS) for fuel oil consumption of ships, requiring all ships • Regulations for international shipping developed at IMO take the form of Conventions, which then need to be ratified by a quorum of IMO Member Countries before they take effect. • Once ratified, the Conventions can be updated by a Committee following due process to ensure that modifications are supported by a majority of Parties to the Convention.
above 5000 gross tonnage to collect and report fuel consumption data for each type of fuel oil they use. Some additional data has to be reported, including a proxy for transport work. This data collection process allows IMO to obtain more accurate data on fuel consumption and carbon intensity of shipping. It also may provide a solid basis for future Market Based Measures, such as a CO 2 tax, an emissions trading system, or a fuel carbon standard. As IMO’s work on GHG emissions progressed, it became clear that improving ship efficiency would not be enough to reduce emissions from international shipping sufficiently to be consistent with the UNFCCC’s target established by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, IMO embarked on the development of a comprehensive GHG reduction strategy. An initial strategy was adopted in 2018, setting three specific objectives (see Boxout 2 ), and laying out a plan to firm up the strategy, • Air pollution matters are covered by a dedicated Annex to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, customarily referred to as MARPOL Annex VI. • The Convention and its Annexes are administered and maintained up-to-date by IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC).
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Figure 2 EEDI concept with EEDI phases
Source: IMO, 2016
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Reference line Phase 1 (10%) Phase 0 Phase 2 (20%) Phase 3 (30%)
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Figure 3 Attained EEDI for containerships vs target curves (511 ships: 141 ships for non-mandatory, 277 ships for Phase 0 and 93 ships for Phase 1) Source: IMO 2018
ship’s design power, in case other measures would not be sufficient. Under the CII regulation, ships will be rated in classes from A to E, with an action plan needed for ships in the lowest performance classes. Moreover, the criteria classes will follow a downward trajectory, consistent with the Initial GHG Strategy’s 40% carbon intensity reduction target by 2030.
including short- mid- and long-term measures by 2023. Most recently, existing ships were targeted by new requirements: the Energy Efficiency Existing Ships Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). EEXI may require retrofitting energy efficiency measures and may lead to derating of a
IMO Initial GHG Strategy
VISION IMO remains committed to reducing GHG emissions from international shipping and, as a matter of urgency, aims to phase them out as soon as possible in this century. LEVELS OF AMBITION Carbon intensity of the ship to decline through implementation of further phases of the EEDI for new ships Carbon intensity of international shipping to decline to reduce CO 2 emissions per transport work, as an average across international
shipping, by at least 40% by 2030, pursuing efforts towards 70% by 2050, compared to 2008 GHG emissions from international shipping to peak and decline; to peak GHG emissions from international shipping as soon as possible and to reduce the total annual GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008, while pursuing efforts towards phasing them out as called for in the Vision as a point on a pathway of CO 2 emissions reduction consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
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Looking again at Figure 1 (blue line, CO 2 emissions), it is clear that IMO’s actions so far already have had a significant effect on shipping emissions. Up to 2008, there was a direct correlation between global trade and shipping emissions. Since then, demand for seaborne global trade has continued to grow, while emissions remained roughly at the same level. Current IMO discussions At the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, observers noted a growing momentum to increase the ambition of the IMO target for international shipping towards achieving net zero by 2050. Major shipping industry organisations such as the International Chamber of Shipping are explicitly supporting the 2050 net-zero target and many expressed the hope that the momentum of COP26 would continue at IMO’s MEPC, which was held in the third week of November 2021. Carbon neutrality by 2050 was effectively discussed at the meeting, but IMO’s Member Countries have not yet reached a decision on this. However, importantly, the Committee explicitly recognised the need to strengthen the ambition of the Initial IMO GHG Strategy during its revision process and formally agreed to initiate the revision of the Initial IMO Strategy in line with the original 2023 timeline. Terms of Reference for this work have been agreed. A certification process will be critical to ensure consistent use of the methodology and to create confidence in the numbers provided Life cycle approach for low and zero carbon fuels While this outcome has been seen as a disappointment by several countries and observers following the ‘momentum’ that was generated around shipping at COP26, in my view MEPC 77 has made meaningful progress. Adjusting the 2050 target and sharpening ambition is one thing, but even more important is to work on the near-term actions that will facilitate the introduction of low and zero carbon (LC and ZC) fuels. In fact, several delegations noted during
the MEPC meeting that it was more important to now focus on concrete measures than on a new resolution concerning the 2050 target. LC and ZC fuels will be more expensive than today’s conventional fuels. As a result, there is a growing consensus that some form of Market Based Measure (MBM) establishing a carbon price will be needed to create the business case for LC and ZC technologies and make their use economically attractive compared to conventional high carbon footprint fuels. Regardless of which MBM will eventually be selected, a sound methodology for assessing the well-to-propeller GHG footprint of fuels will be required. MEPC has already started work on this topic. The methodology should include default values for different fuels and their manufacturing pathways, covering today’s conventional fossil fuels as well as LC and ZC fuels. In addition, there should be an option to establish a fuel’s GHG footprint on the basis of certified actual data. This would be a strong incentive for the development of new, innovative fuel production pathways that truly deliver substantial ‘life cycle’ GHG savings. The discussions were progressed at the November MEPC meeting and further work for the coming months has been defined, including the development of criteria for fuel certification schemes and the mechanisms for regular review of default upstream and downstream emission values. A certification process will be critical to ensure consistent use of the methodology and to create confidence in the numbers provided. The sooner this process can be finalised, the better. This will allow it to be introduced gradually as new LC and ZC fuels come to the market. Where conventional fuels are concerned, independent verification using default GHG footprint values should be Certification process for low and zero carbon marine fuels straightforward. But having internationally recognised and independently verified carbon footprint data would be a key element in providing regulatory certainty for the developers and buyers of LC and ZC fuels. The next step will be to modify the format of the Bunker Delivery Note (BDN) to include GHG footprint information of the fuel supplied. I believe this work should be started now, to make sure the
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updated format will be available at the time the GHG footprint calculation methodology will be finalised. This will allow experience to be gained with the GHG footprint assessment methodology and the verification process. Adding GHG footprint data to the BDN could initially be done on a voluntary basis and then become mandatory by the date that a MBM will be implemented. Proposed levy to fund R&D Another thing that was discussed once more by the Committee is an industry proposed fuel levy combined with the establishment of a Research & Development Fund. Again, no consensus has been reached yet on this proposal. But on the positive side, the proposal has not been rejected and has been referred for further discussion to a Working Group. Adopting this industry proposal would be a strong signal from the countries at IMO to support the industry in driving innovation in LC and ZC technologies, by setting up the mechanism to gather and manage funds to support the shipping decarbonisation process. The concept of managing a fund would be novel at IMO and hence it should not be a surprise that this takes some time. Criteria for assessment of proposed Market Based Measures Concerning the implementation of MBMs, I believe it is best not to rush into a measure now, but to prepare a decision based on a solid impact assessment of the different options that are on the table today. Key criteria to be considered for an effective MBM would be: • Provides a stable and predictable long-term framework • Will ensure a level playing field • Will be fit for consistent enforcement across the globe • Provides sufficient incentives for early movers • Avoids major disruptions to trade, e.g. due to an abrupt and steep increase in transportation costs. A more detailed analysis will be helpful to support IMO’s decision-making process, including the details that will need to be addressed to make a MBM fully fit for purpose. However, based on my own assessment, I believe a low carbon fuel standard would offer the strongest incentives for the development and early deployment of LC and ZC fuels. This could be implemented within
the scope of MARPOL Annex VI, building on the DCS regulation. It is obvious that fuel suppliers around the world will need to do their part in making alternative fuels available. But regulating the manufacturers and suppliers of fuels is something that needs to be done by IMO’s member countries. However, once an IMO MBM creates demand, surely both current and new innovative suppliers will be attracted to these markets. In fact, there IMO’s MEPC ismakingmeaningful progress, but next year will be critical to lay the basis for a credible and enforceable long-termplan to achieve an increased ambition by 2050 are already quite a few initiatives under way to explore scalable manufacturing options for LC and ZC fuels, which should give all involved the confidence that, with a suitable regulatory stimulus, these can become a reality in the next decade and that they can be scaled up as needed to meet the 2050 target. Concluding remarks Summing up, IMO’s MEPC is making meaningful progress, but next year will be critical to lay the basis for a credible and enforceable long-term plan to achieve an increased ambition by 2050. IMO should then formally adopt its Finalized GHG Strategy in 2023. References IMO, 2016. IMO Train the Trainer (TTT) Course on Energy Efficient Ship Operation, Module 2 – Ship Energy Efficiency Regulations and Related Guidelines , London: IMO. IMO, 2018. EEDI database – Review of status of technological development (Regulation 21.6 of MARPOL Annex VI), MEPC 73/INF.11 , London: IMO. Jasper Faber, S. H. S. Z. e. a., 2020. Fourth IMO GHG Study - Final Report , Delft: CE Delft.
Eddy Van Bouwel evbouwel@skynet.be
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Green hydrogen to boost a sustainable economy in India An overviewof the significant challenges India is encountering on the technological and economic aspects of the transition to green hydrogen Dr MP Sukumaran Nair Former Secretary to Chief Minister, Kerala and Chairman, Public Sector Restructuring & Audit Board, Govt of Kerala
H ydrogen, the lightest gas and the But the industry nowadays talks widely about grey, blue, and green hydrogen. The context is decarbonisation of human activities to save the planet from an impending climatic disaster through a transition from fossil hydrocarbons to hydrogen as a future energy carrier. The recently published 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warns that the goal of 1.5˚C recommended in the Paris Agreement three years ago will be reached by 2030 – a decade earlier than announced previously – has also added a fair amount of momentum to the above. Unlike hydrocarbons, all of which are fossil origin first element in the periodic table of elements, is colourless and odourless. barring a few synthetic fuels, hydrogen upon combustion produces only water and no carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) or other greenhouse gases (GHG).
Here, the colour of hydrogen is attributed to its carbon intensity – a measure of emissions given out during its production. Grey hydrogen is the gas produced from hydrocarbon feedstock, such as oil or natural gas, along with the attendant emissions of GHG, predominantly CO 2 . If the CO 2 emitted is subsequently contained through a process called carbon sequestration – sending the compressed gas to abandoned oil wells or other mines beneath the earth, not to rise up again and cause warming up of the atmosphere and consequent climatic distortions – the hydrogen produced is termed blue hydrogen. Green hydrogen is the gas produced from electrolysis of water using renewable (green) electricity without any emissions throughout its entire life cycle, from production to end use. Hydrogen is an energy carrier that when produced sustainably without GHG emissions is
CO
Grey hydrogen
Reforming or gasi cation
CCUS
Reforming or gasi cation
Blue hydrogen
Fossil fuel
Solid carbon
Pyrolysis
Turquoise hydrogen
Green hydrogen
Electrolysis
Renewable electricity
Red hydrogen
Nuclear electricity
Electrolysis
Figure 1 Colours of hydrogen
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considered one of the solutions to the escalating climate change crisis. Green hydrogen is produced out of water (which contains two atoms of hydrogen chemically bonded to one oxygen atom) through an electrolytic process with the use of renewable power. The equipment used for splitting water into its elements using electricity is called an electrolyser. Major uses of green hydrogen include power generation, as an energy carrier to power heavy industry such as steelmaking, manufacturing ammonia for the fertiliser industry, and as a fuel for hard-to-decarbonised vehicles, including aircraft and ships. Across the world, green hydrogen development efforts are gaining technical and economic importance, both in developed and developing countries. The burgeoning global green hydrogen market is projected to be worth $11 trillion by 2050, as per Goldman Sachs’ estimates. It is widely believed that every sector in which fossil energy is currently employed will become decarbonised during the energy transition over the next decades. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, while speaking at the Airbus Summit 2021, said that while quantities, delivery mechanisms, and the price of hydrogen pose certain challenges, he is confident to deliver hydrogen-powered zero- emission commercial aircraft by 2035. Power generation According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021 , of the 26,823 TW of electricity produced in 2020, 16,447 TW (61%) was generated from fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas. The IPCC estimates that the production of electricity emits 10 giga-tonnes, or approximately 37% of global CO 2 emissions. Therefore, renewable power generation becomes a priority agenda for producers supplying power to the grid. In the transport sector, green hydrogen will also supplement electric power to replace fossil fuels. In India, now that the commercial viability of renewable power, especially solar power, has been well established, public sector majors NTPC and Coal India are also venturing into green hydrogen, for which low cost green power is an essential requisite. NTPC have got the go-ahead from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) to set up a 4,750 MW renewable energy park at Rann of Kutch in Khavada, Gujarat to become India’s largest solar park.
H storage
Iron ore pellets
H , water
Condenser
DR plant
H
H
Water
O
HBI storage
HBI
Scrap
Electrolyser
Carbon
Slag
EAF
Liquid steel
Lime
Figure 2 Direct reduced iron
India’s private sector is also extremely proactive in clean energy. Major private sector companies Reliance and Adani are also focusing on the sector. Adani plans to invest $20 billion in clean energy, aiming to make it the biggest clean energy company in the world, without subsidy or viability gap funding. The company now has a cumulative 25 GW of renewable energy projects already developed and under construction. Reliance has revealed plans to set up 100 GW of solar power-generating capacity by 2030. Being a major player in the global hydrocarbon industry, Reliance expects to make green hydrogen available at $1 per kilogram by 2030, catalysing the country’s energy transition towards zero emissions. A relatively new entrant, ReNew Power, started in 2011 and has developed a generation base of 10 GW, with several projects in the pipeline and also under development. Tata Power currently has one- third of its generation of 13 GW as renewable power and plans to phase out coal-based capacity and expand its clean and green capacity to 80% by 2030. Steel Production of steel is estimated to contribute to about 9% of CO 2 emissions globally and due to
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