Decarbonisation Technology - February 2022 Issue

emerged and been accepted by the public.  A sustainable supply of raw materials for batteries and renewable energy infrastructure does not become a constraint. Roadmaps for net-zero road transport should be resilient in case progress with any single solution is insufficient or in the event that one or more of these assumptions prove to be false. Alternative technologies that achieve the same net-zero objective can increase the resilience of such roadmaps. Learning and feedback from early adopters can also increase resilience in the system. ERTRAC is a European technology platform supported by the European Commission. It operates as a public/private partnership (PPP), promoting research by the European Commission, academia, and private companies, including the automotive and fuels industries. ERTRAC (ERTRAC, 2021) explored a number of scenarios for decarbonisation of road transport and concluded that: • The complete and robust carbon neutrality of road transport (light and heavy duty) will require a mix of technologies, where electrification is the key element for the reduction of CO 2 emissions. These technologies include BEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and advanced hybrid powertrains.

• The carbon-neutral production of electricity is a prerequisite for carbon-neutral road transport in all fleet and fuel scenarios. They also highlight that the mix of these powertrain options will strongly depend on the development of the infrastructure (charging infrastructure, ERS, hydrogen filling stations, production capacities for renewable fuels, etc.). ERTRAC developed a timeline for the transition of light transport (motorcycles and micro- vehicles), passenger vehicles, and light and heavy- duty commercial vehicles, based on technical neutrality and a long-term perspective (ERTRAC, 2020). Figure 3 illustrates the ERTRAC timeline for the evolution of the EU passenger vehicle parc over the next three decades. As part of its Low Carbon Pathways programme, Concawe explored the optimum level of vehicle electrification using scenarios with different levels of battery production capacity within the EU market (Concawe, 2021) (Shafiei, 2021). Various reports forecast growth from the current (2021) EU battery capacity of 0.037 TWh/yr ranging from 0.5 TW/h up to 0.95 TWh/yr by 2030. Concawe compared battery capacity scenarios ranging from 0.05-0.15 TWh/yr through to more than 0.8 TWh/yr (see Figure 4 ).

The EV share of new vehicle registrations grows to nearly 50%, although the share in the on - the - road fleet (vehicle parc) remains below 25%

All new vehicle registrations are for EVs. BEV and PHEV account for more than 90% of the vehicle parc

EVs are the “new normal” dominating the vehicle parc (>50%)

The dominant powertrain for passenger vehicles.

Functionality and economy of BEVs is attractive for urban use, less so for long distances. The electric only range increases up to 100km so that one is able to drive emissions free in urban areas. Become ‘clean’ under all conditions (full compliance with air quality regulations). Further emissions. These are still the prime mover for long - distance road journeys. A niche market application. eciency improvements continue to reduce CO

Are becoming omnipresent in urban environments and mor e attractive for long - distance trips. The only applications for the ICE. Their eciency continues to increase. They are still essential for long-distance trips. When not in a PHEV these will be for niche applications and non- EU markets. Some niche applications for direct H combustion. Small share of private vehicles but a relevant share in commercial vehicles such as taxis.

BEV

A consumer choice.

PHEV

Small private, yet large commercial eet shares.

FCEV

ICE

FCEV

Source: ERTRAC decarbonisation roadmap 2050

2020 – 2030

2030 – 2040

2040 – 2050

Figure 3 ERTRAC timeline for the decarbonisation of the passenger vehicle parc