Decarbonisation Technology - February 2022 Issue

100

0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Battery supply cap (TWh/year) 0

ICE

WTW Mt COeq/year (right axis)

PHEV

BEV

HEV

Figure 4 Optimal vehicle sales mix minimising well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions, subject to a battery cap in 2030 when the utility factor is greater than 45%. Source: Concawe 2021

electricity mix offers significant savings in CO 2 emissions. The ZEVTC refer to a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the greenhouse gas emissions from a variety of passenger car powertrains and fuels by ICCT (ICCT, 2021). ICCT dismissed alternatives to BEVs as it was concerned “there is not likely to be sufficient supply of very low GHG biofuels, biogas, and e-fuels to decarbonize internal combustion engine vehicles”. This is consistent with a recent report from IEA, which finds that high commodity prices present a near-term obstacle, so, from a global perspective, biofuels for transport are “not on track” (IEA, 2021). A report by Imperial College London comes to a more positive conclusion for the EU, that there will be sufficient sustainable low carbon liquid fuels to support the decarbonisation of light and heavy- duty road transport as well as the anticipated demand from marine and aviation. Imperial analysed the sustainable biomass availability for all markets in the EU and concluded that, given the right support and investment, advanced and waste-based biofuel production can reach 46-97 Mtoe for 2030 and 71-176 Mtoe by 2050 (Imperial College London, 2021). Any strategies and implementation plans that

• Once battery capacity reaches 0.8 TWh/yr or more (the ‘unconstrained’ scenario), a passenger vehicle parc comprising 100% BEVs was found to be the optimum solution for reducing CO 2 emissions. Hybrids can increase resilience during the transition In all other scenarios, the optimum sales mix shows the importance of HEV and PHEVs for reductions in CO 2 emissions: • Under scenarios with a low/medium production capacity (less than 0.4 TWh/yr) and low PHEV utility factors (<45%), a combination of HEV and PHEV sales was the most effective option in reducing CO 2 emissions. • In scenarios with battery capacity up to 0.55 TWh/yr, PHEVs with a 100 km electric-driving range were found to be the key component in the optimal sales mix. Increasing the utility factor (the proportion of distance travelled in electric mode) of PHEVs to greater than 45% was found to be the most immediate and accessible way to decrease CO 2 emissions in the short term. Beyond 2030, increasing the contribution from low carbon fuels along with a decrease in the carbon intensity of the