Decarbonisation Technology - November 2022

Scenario

Air traffic demand growth

Fuel efficiency gain

Fuel demand change

EU-27 NZE: Net Zero Emissions

1.8%

2.0%

-0.2%

EU-27 SD: Sustainable Development

2.3%

1.9%

0.4%

EU-27 HG: High Growth

3.1%

1.9%

1.2%

Table 2 Average annual development in air traffic, fuel efficiency, and fuel demand

any misperception, the European scenarios are identified as EU-27 NZE, EU-27 SD, and EU-27 HG. UK focus is on domestic aviation As the UK is following an independent strategy for aviation decarbonisation, UK figures are excluded from this analysis of the impact of EU regulation. The UK’s ‘Jet Zero’ strategy commits to net-zero emissions in UK domestic aviation by 2040 (UK Government, 2022), while the ReFuelEU regulation includes international departures from EU airports. The average annual change in fuel demand under the three scenarios in Table 2 was used to explore the future demand for biojet and e-kerosene determined by the ReFuelEU mandate levels, assuming traffic demand in the EU will have fully recovered by 2025. In the EU-27 NZE scenario , the average annual growth in aviation traffic in the EU is reduced to 1.8% a year. Plausible changes in consumer behaviour that would be consistent with this scenario include a lower level of growth in business travel due to the normalisation of video conferencing, mainly for internal but also for a share of business- to-business meetings. Additionally, the EU and national governments could put in place measures to encourage a shift away from short- haul domestic travel to rail, such as more direct city-to city rail links. Other factors that may contribute to a reduced rate of growth in passenger air traffic include a protracted higher cost of energy, higher inflation, and a consequential economic downturn. Efficiency gains in aircraft and in-flight management operations help realise the ICAO target average annual gain in fuel efficiency of 2% over the duration. Normalisation of operating

procedures, such as the use of electric tractors for taxying on ground, also contribute. Hybrid aircraft are introduced widely. Even though alternative fuels such as electric and hydrogen become viable for short-haul flights, they are not deployed in sufficient numbers to have a significant impact on overall demand by 2050. Consequently, as shown in Figure 3 , despite a small growth in air traffic, overall demand for aviation fuels in Europe declines over the period 2025 to 2050 by an average 0.2% per year. Demand for SAF components grows from 1 to 16 Mt biojet and from zero to 13 Mt e-kerosene, in compliance with the ReFuelEU mandated levels. Conventional jet fuel declines to 17 Mt by 2050. In the EU-27 SD scenario, overall aviation fuel demand increases due to growth in aviation of 2.3% per year, while average annual energy efficiency gains remain slightly under ICAO’s target of 2% at 1.9%. Improvements in fuel efficiency help offset the additional cost of SAF over conventional jet fuels. Conventional jet demand reduces to 22 Mt by 2050, with biojet reaching 21 Mt and e-kerosene 16 Mt (see Figure 4 ).

0.3 2.4

0.9

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Conventional

Biojet

e-kerosene

Figure 3 EU-27 NZE scenario: aviation fuel demand by type (million tonnes)