Decarbonisation Technology - November 2022

Conventional

Biojet

e-kerosene

Conventional

Biojet

e-kerosene

6

4

16

0.3

3

0

8

23

2.6

0.9

8

16 5

13

15

9 3

20

0.4

2.7

0

21

0.9

28

41

45

45

36

45

46

45

35

48

44

30

22

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Figure 5 EU-27 HG scenario: aviation fuel demand by type (million tonnes)

Figure 4 EU-27 SD scenario: aviation fuel demand by type (million tonnes)

The EU-27 HG scenario suggests a full recovery in average growth rates for European aviation passenger traffic to pre-Covid levels (see Figure 5 ). The cost of energy falls from the highs of 2022-3, in turn reducing the depth and duration of the economic recession. Progress with decarbonisation of the aviation industry, including the transition to SAF, attracts more domestic, regional, and international air travel. Consequential aviation fuel demand grows by 1.2% a year, although conventional jet fuel declines to 30 Mt by 2050. All three scenarios assume rapid scale-up and commercialisation of both biojet, and e-kerosene capacity, which is the rationale behind the ReFuelEU regulation. The EU-27 HG scenario requires that 16 Mt of biojet will be available in the EU by 2040 and, similarly by 2045 e-kerosene supply would need to reach 8 MT. Supply challenges Globally, in 2021 SAF production volumes were less than 0.5% of total jet fuel demand (IEA Bioenergy, 2021). The challenges regarding biojet supply are threefold: feedstock availability, production capacity, and economics. Table 3 summarises the findings of a study on the potential overall availability of biomass

produced from EU domestic feedstocks of agricultural, forest, and waste origin, which meet the sustainability criteria as defined in the Renewable Energy Directive II (European Commission, 2022). The ranges given in Table 3 reflect the scenarios used in their study to explore different levels of biomass mobilisation within the EU (Imperial College London, 2021). Biofuel production technologies are not specific to a given fuel, producing gasoline, kerosene, and diesel range molecules. The percentage of the jet fraction with the total liquid varies for each technology, while process conditions can be adjusted to increase the yield of jet or diesel. IEA Bioenergy points out that the ratio of jet to diesel will be influenced by market demand and economics as well as policy (IEA Bioenergy, 2021). For the HEFA (hydrotreated esters and fatty acids) route, when the objectives are co-production of both biojet and biodiesel, approximately 15% of the total biofuels could be biojet. Where the objective is to maximise biojet, the selectivity could increase to nearly 55% biojet at the expense of biodiesel (see Figure 5 in the IEA bioenergy report). Applying a 15% selectivity to biojet for the estimated levels of biofuels for transport from

Biomass availability (Mtoe)

2030

2050

All markets (energy and non-energy)

392-498 208-344

408-533

Bioenergy

215-366

Biofuel for transport 71-176 Table 3 Potential availability of sustainable biomass for biofuels production in the EU (Imperial College London, 2021) 46-97

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