the Imperial College report gives 7-15 Mt (2030) and 11-28 Mt (2050) biojet, which would be sufficient to meet the projected demand in the EU-27 HG scenario shown in Figure 5. If the 2050 target of 85% SAF, as proposed by the EU Parliament, were to be adopted, 28 Mt of biojet would be needed. Of course, potential availability is different from practical availability. The Imperial College study also discusses measures needed to realise the potential availability of biofuels. Such measures include: • Policy support to create a positive investment environment • Research and development to improve biomass conversion efficiency and selectivity to different biofuel products • Development of new supply chains to manage biomass collection, pretreatment, and logistics • Partnerships across different industries and with governments to mobilise resources required The synthesis of e-fuels requires renewable hydrogen, produced from the electrolysis of water using electricity from renewable sources (wind, solar). The hydrogen is combined with carbon from carbon dioxide captured from industrial flues, the atmosphere, and oceans. Globally, the production of e-fuels is nascent. The eFuel Alliance lists 14 current or planned
O setting (CORSIA) and carbon capture 19%
Infrastructure and operational e ciencies 3%
New aviation technologies 13%
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) 65%
Figure 6 IATA’s Fly Net Zero by 2050 Strategy is contingent on the supply of SAF e-fuel plants, of which eight are in Europe (eFuel Alliance, 2022). The majority of announced projects are at demonstration scale, with a Technical Readiness Level of TRL 7. The next two decades will be critical in the development and deployment of commercial-scale e-fuels. Figure 6 shows that the IATA Fly Net Zero strategy relies on the build-up of global SAF capacity for 65% of the total emissions reductions in aviation transport by 2050.
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Robin Nelson robin.nelson@decarbonisationtechnology.com
www.decarbonisationtechnology.com
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