0.15 0.1 0.05 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.50 0.55
Actual delta p
Predicted delta p
1/1/2020 0
2/1/2020 3/1/2020
4/1/2020
5/1/2020
6/1/2020
7/1/2020
8/1/2020
9/1/2020
10/1/2020
Figure 5 Comparison between actual and predicted ∆P across first reformer reactor
nificance and ability of explaining first reformer reactor ∆P behaviour. Lastly, Figure 4 shows a comparison between the actual and predicted ∆P across the first reformer reactor. The prediction overview was found to be satisfactory. The change in behaviour or the errors observed at some period can be attributed to the dynamic changes in the six explana - tory variables that affect the output in the regression equation and influ - ence the catalyst attrition. This, in turn, leads to increased ∆P. Lastly, the end period prediction errors can
be attributed to the physical damage of the catalyst, which is difficult to draw in the prediction. Acknowledgment The author would like to express special thanks of gratitude to Dr. Tony K. Joseph, Dr. Biswanath Saha, Dr. Sharul Sham bin Dol, Mr. Sudharsanan Soundararajan, Mr. Shubhadeep Sarkar, and Mr. Mohammed Salih, for the valuable discussions, contributions, and continuous support. References 1 Massachusetts Institutes of Technology, Multiple Linear Regression, 2006.
2 Mustafar I, A study on prediction of output in oilfield using multiple linear regression, 2011. 3 Hayden R W, A Review of: Applied Linear Regression Models, 2005, 4th ed by M H Kutner, J Nachtsheim, J Neter, New York, McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2004, ISBN 0-07-301344- 7, xvii+ 701 pp. Ali Al Shehhi is a Senior Technical Integrity Engineer at ADNOC, focusing on asset integrity, corrosion management, inspection management, asset optimisation, performance management, and refining troubleshooting. He is certified by American Petroleum Institute in Refining Corrosion & Materials, Tank Inspection, and Piping Inspection. He is also a certified lead auditor in Quality Management System. Email: Alirm@adnoc.ae
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