aligned to feedstock security and incentive stability. This provided management with a viable investment pathway, grounded in asset-level constraints and market realism, rather than relying on optimistic assumptions about future policy or technology readiness.
H
25% Cancelled
Hydrogen
Cancelled Planning Construction
Commissioning Operational
50% Planning
CCS
CO
25% Operational
Biofuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
Est. MT CO abated per annum
Figure 5 European refinery decarbonisation announcement status (2025)
Case study: readiness assessment for a green hydrogen project A further example highlights a different dimension of decarbonisation project risk: overall project readiness. The offtaker for a new European green hydrogen facility was preparing to receive hydrogen from a project led by a first-time developer. As commissioning approached, concerns emerged around whether the facility could deliver hydrogen safely, reliably, and on schedule. An independent production assurance review by Becht assessed readiness across technical systems, operations, safety, and governance through document review, site visits, and stakeholder interviews. The assessment identified gaps in procedures, roles, and system maturity that would likely have impacted start-up performance. By surfacing these issues early, the offtaker was able to pause integration planning and require corrective actions, enabling the developer to address deficiencies prior to start-up and improving the likelihood of stable operation. Sustaining momentum Publicly announcing a project is no guarantee of execution, and tracking the latest status of the announcements highlights challenges in each of the three key technology categories in progressing from concept to operation. Each technology route has faced differing challenges and timescales for execution, with biofuels projects demonstrating the highest success rate in progressing to operation, while the majority of carbon capture projects remain in the planning stage. Furthermore, the recent wave of hydrogen projects has been beset by cancellations.
Flexibility in feedstock and technology, and the ability to co-process in existing operations, have resulted in the rapid adoption of biofuels projects, further incentivised by additional policy support through the Renewable Energy Directive III and ReFuelEU Aviation policies. By enabling integration into ongoing profitable operations and being scalable to individual sites’ capital appetites, robust conversion of biofuels projects into operation can be expected to continue. The scale of hydrogen and carbon capture projects often necessitates the right local combination of supply, offtake, and government support, favouring regional energy hubs with involvement of multiple industrial partners and often coming with a significant logistics component. Projects frequently face challenges across: • Grid connection capacity. • CO₂ and H₂ transport and storage infrastructure. • Lack of offtake partners for CO₂ and H₂. • Permitting and approval timelines. • Policy support and subsidies. As the pipeline has shifted to execution, with more than 55% of projects progressing beyond planning, leveraging experienced independent input from the conceptual, feasibility, planning, and implementation phases reduces execution risk while enabling site resources to focus on stable, profitable operation and upcoming maintenance periods. Accelerating emission costs shorten the decision timeline for refiners to select, plan, and implement their chosen decarbonisation route. By tailoring the project to the unique needs of each refinery, rather than the most optimistic licensor estimates, and by pursuing a pragmatic
www.decarbonisationtechnology.com
31
Powered by FlippingBook