signals a strategic pivot from compliance- driven decarbonisation to wider portfolio adoption within European refining. A reduction in new announcements, alongside a series of cancellations, highlights a market moving into the realities of execution. With many refiners relying on a single
8,000
European re nery decarbonisation announcements since 2013
7,000
Biofuels € 9 Billion
6,000
H
€ 8 Billion
5,000
4,000
CO
€ 2 Billion
3,000
2,000
1,000
50
2013 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025
Figure 4 European refinery decarbonisation announcements (2013-2025)
is on average 50 years old and 150 KBD crude capacity. Conversions to biofuels or lubes still incur emissions costs if fossil energy or grey hydrogen remains in use. Meanwhile, redundant assets are being converted to terminals, with imports meeting demand whilst exiting ETS obligations. Decarbonisation projects from announcement to execution In practice, successful decarbonisation strategies rarely rely on a single flagship technology. Instead, they combine near-term efficiency improvements, mid-term process upgrades, and longer-term infrastructure investments. From a review of annual company announcements by European refiners of decarbonisation projects, a wave of initiatives was announced primarily between 2019 and 2025, peaking at an annual total of €7 billion in 2023 (see Figure 4 ). From 2013 to 2018, refiners likely focused on low-Capex energy efficiency projects executed within existing turnaround cycles and did not warrant public announcement. Meanwhile, as market impetus grew amid low borrowing costs and policy funding support from 2021 to 2023, a range of carbon capture, hydrogen production, and biofuels projects were announced by refiners. Biofuels have dominated announcements, accounting for almost half of signalled capital from 2020. Hydrogen projects accelerated sharply from 2021, often paired with renewable or blue hydrogen supply schemes. The concentration of projects in 2021 to 2023
flagship project to reduce vulnerability to future increases in emissions costs, a rigorous assessment of technology options is a crucial step to reduce project risk. As the licensor market develops and establishes a variety of decarbonisation technologies, an independent external market- wide technology readiness assessment ensures that the right solution for each location, process, budget, and scale is identified. In a cost- pressured market, projects that are expensive, delayed, or highly sensitive to operating conditions can quickly undermine the underlying business case. Case study: sequencing renewable fuels investment decisions A European refinery facing structurally weak margins engaged Becht to assess conversion to a renewable fuels configuration, comparing full conversion against phased co-processing within existing hydroprocessing assets. A rapid, multidisciplinary screening integrated technical feasibility, feedstock availability, product market access, and incentive exposure, alongside repurposing constraints on in-flight capital projects. The analysis moved beyond headline economics to identify practical delivery risks, including pretreatment requirements, hydrogen balance, product routings, and sensitivity to policy-driven credits. The outcome was not a binary ‘convert or not’ decision, but a sequenced strategy: near-term co-processing to capture available margins and de-risk operations, combined with defined triggers for deeper conversion
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