Decarbonisation Technology - November 2021

COP26 SPECIAL

Play a leading role in the energy transition

Transformation of the energy systemmust support the development of renewable electricity and fuels, while progressively reducing the demand for fossil fuel

Robin Nelson

I n the lead-up to the 2021 COP 26 meeting in Glasgow, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 released their latest report on the physical science basis of climate change, as a contribution to the IPCC sixth Assessment Report. The Summary for Policy Makers concludes that it is “unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean cryosphere and biosphere have occurred”. 1 The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report provides a yearly review of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The 2020 Emissions Gap Report found that, despite a brief dip in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the world is still heading for a temperature rise in excess of 3ºC this century, far beyond the Paris Agreements goals of limiting global warming to well below 2ºC and pursuing 1.5ºC. 2 IPCC and UNEP conclude that it is highly probable that we will pass the 1.5ºC limit before 2030. Unless all sectors of society including governments, cities, local authorities, and businesses act decisively there is little chance of changing the trajectory to remain below 2ºC by 2050.

Time to transform The World Business Council for Sustainable Business Development (WBCSD), in its updated Vision 2050 , 3 stresses that now is the “Time to Transform” to deliver both the Climate Action and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The WBCSD vision describes nine pathways for businesses to play a leading role in this transformation, one of which is the transformation of the energy system. Whilst we must recognise the interconnections between energy and the other Sustainable Development Goals, the focus of Decarbonisation Technology is on what the oil and gas sector can and is doing to bring about the energy transition. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in their World Energy Outlook 2020 , highlights that while the energy transition has made progress over the last decade, a full implementation of their IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan is necessary to change the longer term trajectory and meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. 4 The IPCC states that to stay within the world’s remaining carbon budget we must stop exploiting fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). The need to ensure we deliver the energy for heating/cooling homes and workplace, for cooking, for the movement of goods and people shows that this is currently impractical and so even with the best will from the forthcoming COP it is likely to remain a longer term target.