45
Divest or close
Reduce emissions
40
BP Chevron ExxonMobil Eni Shell TotalEnergies
35
30
25
Invest
Target quadrant
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Re ning net cash margin (US$/bbl)
Figure 4 Characterisation of site sustainability
• Improved operations and optimisation • CCS on large emissions sources, such as FCCs, gasifiers and hydrogen production units via partnerships with logistics and upstream operators • Green hydrogen These advantaged sites can be a platform to produce lower carbon intensity fuels, such as liquid biofuels and ultimately synthetic e-fuels (which combines captured CO 2 and low carbon hydrogen) that regulators desperately seek. Given the uncertainty around the size, scale, and nature
of these investments, we expect companies to focus their energy transition investments on those sites that occupy the target quadrant, which is a very limited subset of global refining assets. The refining business is about to embark on another major transformation – this time supplying low carbon fuels, where both site and fuel emissions will be a critical determinant of future success.
Alan Gelder alan.gelder@woodmac.com
www.decarbonisationtechnology.com
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