IMO 2030 GHG targets ( S cenario 1)
2008–2018 GHG emissions
120 140
120 140
+18.0% –21.0%
+16.7% –40%
–6.8%
100
100
60 80
60 80
–30%
40
40
20
20
0
0
2012 emissions
2030 emissions
2008 emissions
Demand growth
Cl reduction
2008 emissions
Demand growth
Cl reduction
Increase
Decrease
Total
IMO 2030 GHG targets ( S cenario 2)
IMO 2030 GHG targets ( S cenario 3)
120 140
120 140
100
100
+33.3%
+33.3%
–20%
60 80
60 80
–30%
–40%
–46.7%
40
40
20
20
0
0
2030 emissions
2030 emissions
2008 emissions
Demand growth
Cl reduction
2008 emissions
Demand growth
Cl reduction
Figure 2 Relationship between demand for shipping services, carbon intensity, and total GHG emissions: (a) 2008-2018 – voyage-based AER data, (b) 2008-2030 Scenario 1, (c) 2008-2030 Scenario 2, (d) 2008-2030 Scenario 3
IMO started introducing measures to improve energy efficiency in 2011 with the adoption of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) regulations. In 2021, further regulations were adopted: the Energy Efficiency Existing ship Index (EEXI) and CII rating. These regulations steer the first element of the net zero pathway. They have been identified as short-term measures in the IMO strategy and have steered the continuous improvement in carbon intensity observed to date. Role of low- or zero-carbon fuels So far, there are no IMO regulations in place to address the second element of the net zero pathway. The introduction of near zero-carbon fuels into the mix should lead to an acceleration of the CI reduction trend. The industry has not been waiting on the regulations to start the development and piloting of zero-emission ships and fuels. The Global Maritime Forum (GMF) is tracking these developments on a
regular basis. The fourth edition of the GMF report includes 373 registered projects, a significant increase vs the 203 projects identified in the third edition (Anna Rosenberg and Ana Madalena Leitão, 2023). However, surely, the full transition from conventional fossil fuels to zero and near-zero GHG fuels will not happen on a voluntary basis as long as the alternatives are significantly more expensive than conventional fuels. Therefore, the IMO strategy has identified so-called mid-term measures that will be aimed at stimulating the use of low- and zero-carbon fuels. Two candidate measures have been put forward (IMO, 2023): a technical element, namely a goal-based marine fuel standard regulating the phased reduction of the marine fuel’s GHG intensity, and an economic element on the basis of a maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism. As guidance for the development of the so- called mid-term measures that should steer the initial introduction of zero and near-zero fuels, the revised IMO GHG strategy mentions some key
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