16000
10000
Ethylene capacity
Production Demand Propylene capacity
14000
Production Demand
8000
12000
De cit
De cit
6000
10000
8000
4000
6000
2000
4000
2000
0
0
-2000
Figure 1 India – ethylene/propylene capacity vs total downstream demand2
norms have been regulating refinery processes. Today, most brownfield projects are solely driven by these regulations. While costs are associated with these projects for improving fuel quality, only a small fraction can be recovered from fuel product price hikes. Besides, market demand and new tech - nologies are setting a platform for refineries to integrate with petrochemical units to generate more value-added products. Petrochemicals industry status Petrochemicals will likely remain the mainstay of all industrial and consumer-based products consumed by the world daily. To maintain sustainable profitability, the refinery of the future must respond quickly to challenging market conditions,
switching from one strategy to another as profit margins change. Figure 1 shows a huge gap between ethylene and propylene production (installed capacity) vs demand in India, which calls for petrochemical capacity additions. When considering the projected strong demand for pet - rochemical products in India (vs installed capacity), Table 1 shows that by 2025/2030, there will be a shortfall in demand by as much as 8/31.8 MMTPA (vs installed capacity).3 Major challenges Major petrochemical industry challenges in India include: • Lack of advantageous feedstock, like ethane and pro - pane, due to limited gas production. India still imports 55% of required feedstocks and depends upon other countries.
Future petrochemical demand in India
• Surpluses that include ‘scattered’ liquid feed - stock, like naphtha and kerosene. Currently, there is no common pool. • Alternate route via gasification demands high Capex. • High utility and fuel cost; even fuel is required for generation of utilities. • Non-allocation of depleting domestic gas, and there is no new allocation of reservoirs. • Logistics, especially for cryogenics and natural gas liquid (NGL), currently through ships only. • Plastic disposal remains a major concern since it is not biodegradable. There is a need to educate people, and more effort is required to recycle the waste.
S.No.
Product
Nameplate Demand Shortfall Demand Shortfall capacity 2025 2025 2025 2030 2030
10,048 4,233
13,701
7,886 3,578 2,731 5,023 2,050 1,241
Polypropylene
5,815 2,275 2,735 1,550 1,919 1,339 5,565 7,180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4,154 4,155 5,147 3,249 1,960 5,333 7,910
1,879 1,420 3,597 1,330
5,853 5,466 6,573 3,969 2,580 6,378 9,620
LLDPE HDPE
PVC MEG
621
Formaldehyde
(-232]
813
PX
730
2,440
PTA
411
(-121]
568
36
Butadiene
532 615 215
1,291 1,256 1,701
676
1,652 1,442 2,320 1,082
1,037 1,227
LOPE
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1,041 (-55)
Acetic acid
564
PET
1,756
899 401 326 734
899 331 146 204
1,082
Styrene
0
496 413 791
426 233 261
Polyether polyol Butyl acrylate
70
180 530
LAB
23
23 90 98 39
31
31
Glycol ethers
0
Shortfall
MMTPA
Shortfall
MMTPA
110 128
134 170
114 140
Propylene glycol
20 30 30
Yr 2025 • Commodity 11.7 • Niche 6.3 • Total 18.0
Yr 2030 • Commodity
Ethanolamine
23.2
69
90
60
EPR
• Niche • Total
8.6
608 247
326
710 268
428
Phenol
282 182
31.8
65 16
86 31
Acetone Hexene-1
Estimated domestic demand of 25 major petrochemicals products is 50 MMTPA and 65 MMTPA respectively in years 2025 and 2030 3
16
31
0 0 0
195
195
242
242
Polycarbonate
55
55
71
71
SAP
Table 1
72
PTQ Q2 2024
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