Decarbonisation Technology - August 2024 Issue

200

Transmission

Distribution

Latin America North America

12.5

150

Sub Saharan Africa Middle east and north Africa North East Eurasia Greater China Indian Subcontinent South East Asia OECD Pacic Europe

100

7.5

2.5

2022

2030

2040

2050

2030

2040

2050

Grids: Often under-appreciated With increasing electrification forecast in almost all world regions, a stronger and smarter grid is essential for delivering power, especially with rising electricity and power demand and greater use of Variable Renewable Energy Technologies (VRES). Global grid, transmission, and distribution combined will double in length from 100 million circuit-km (c-km) in 2022 to 205 million c-km in 2050 to facilitate the fast and efficient transfer of electricity (see Figure 4 ). As the share of VRES in the electricity supply grows significantly, integration of renewables and grid modernisation must work together to achieve grid reliability. Modernisation of the grid will involve grid-enhancing technologies, such as dynamic power line rating, power flow controllers, digital twin and/or real-time monitoring, and advanced grid features, to name a few. However, flexibility remains key to the major shift in the global energy landscape. As VRES capacity surges by a factor of seven, the global need for flexibility will almost double. Li-ion batteries will emerge as the primary source of flexibility worldwide and will either be integrated with renewables or operate as standalone systems. Decarbonising fossil fuels Today, fossil fuels currently cover 80% of the global primary energy supply. However, with VRES growing, that percentage will shift by the end of this decade as DNV predicts that fossil fuel will still represent around 48% of the global

energy mix by 2050. The role of oil and gas in a just transition is multifaceted. However, it will continue to act as an important contributor to the ambitions at the heart of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, providing the energy needed to support fair growth and improved living conditions for all. DNV predicts oil will make up 17% of primary energy by 2050. Natural gas will surpass oil as the world’s largest primary energy source in the mid-2030s. However, gas will be replaced by renewable sources in the power mix, with natural gas usage peaking in the mid-2030s and then gradually declining in 2050 to a level only slightly higher than today’s usage. Oil and gas will still have a pivotal part to play in the energy transition, and as one of the world’s biggest emitters, the sector must decarbonise. What can be done?  Decarbonise Scope 1 and 2 emissions in production methods, such as reducing fugitive emissions, flares, and venting, improve energy efficiency, and support electrification. v Adopt new technologies, such as CCUS and hydrogen. These technologies have a vital role in reducing Scope 3 emissions. Scaling deployment and providing supportive roadmaps for these new technologies will help to decarbonise hard- to-abate sectors or capture emissions at facilities that cannot be easily decarbonised. w Create adaption plans that provide certainty within the industry of how legacy frameworks fit with new energy systems or opportunities to diversify, by promoting renewable energy and decarbonisation of existing infrastructure.