Decarbonisation Technology - August 2024 Issue

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Floating oshore wind Fixed oshore wind Onshore wind Solar + storage Hydropower Bioenergy Geothermal Nuclear Gas-red Oil-red Coal-red Solar PV

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Figure 2 World grid-connected electricity generation by power station type (Source: IEA 2023, GlobalData 2023, © DNV 2024)

year since the 1980s, in line with economic growth. By 2050, we anticipate a surge in global electricity demand, more than doubling from 29.5 petawatt-hours (29.5 x1015 Wh) in 2022 to 60.8 PWh in 2050 (see Figure 2 ). Large-scale electrification using renewable electricity sits at the heart of the energy transition in many countries. The declining costs of solar and wind technologies will see renewables’ share of electricity generation increase to 69% of total share. Economics is playing a pivotal role in this shift towards renewables. The levelised cost of solar is dwindling and will command a 39% share in the 2050 global power mix. Wind is also expected to grow in popularity across all regions and is anticipated to be 30% of the power supply in 2050: 21% of wind energy will come

from onshore wind, 7.3% from bottom-fixed offshore wind, and 1.6% from floating offshore wind (see Figure 3 ). Greening electricity supply through progressive policies is key to the adoption of renewable technologies and has seen some success. Take the UK for example; using Contracts for Difference (CfD) frameworks and competitive strike prices, the country has been able to champion a strong build-out of wind and solar capacity, reaching an impressive total of 45 GW today, 45% of the total installed UK generation capacity. The UK also boasts one of the most impressive offshore wind markets around the world. However, while the UK’s early ambition and action to champion the energy transition allowed the nation to make good progress, that progress now seems to be stalling.

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Figure 3 Global solar and wind capacity additions (Source: GlobalData 2023, IRENA 2023, © DNV 2024)

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