The energy transition: Progressing or stagnating? The need to transition to a cleaner energy system is widely accepted, but with the 2.0 º C carbon budget hanging by a thread by 2050, has global progress stagnated?
Hari Vamadevan DNV
I f ‘energy transition’ means clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms, then the transition has not truly begun. The transition has started in some regions and for many communities and individuals, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher this year. Currently, renewables have only met some, but not all, of the world’s additional energy demand. Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have risen steadily every year, with the only exception being 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the world. The energy transition needs to accelerate and expand beyond its current scope to reach a net zero energy system by 2050. Global emissions will fall, but not fast or far enough. DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), an annual forecast towards 2050 based on our independent model of the world’s energy system, highlights that global emissions will only be 4% lower in 2030 than they are now and drop to 46% by 2050 (see Figure 1 ) ( DNV, 2024 ). However, time is running out to make a significant difference in curbing carbon emissions – the 2.0ºC carbon budget is in a very precarious state! Achieving net zero by mid-century would mean halving global emissions by 2030, but that is an ambition that DNV forecasts is at risk. Unfortunately, DNV predicts that limiting global warming to 1.5ºC is less likely than ever before. The slow speed of change means that the world is looking at 2.2ºC of global warming above pre- industrial levels by the end of this century. The road ahead is challenging, but DNV highlights that reaching net zero is achievable.
As agreed at COP28 in Dubai last November, the world needs more expansive policies promoting renewable electricity and other zero- carbon solutions, not just in the high-income world but globally. We have the means to keep the world on track to be at, or very near, net zero by mid-century. It will take an enormous effort and collaboration from citizens, industry, and governments. However, we need to look further than just energy systems and consumption; we must also look at the myriad of different sectors that are consuming energy. Decarbonising the fossil fuel sector is just as vital as decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors – steel, iron, cement, maritime, and buildings – and ensuring those industrial and transportation industries also transition. Making energy sustainable The global electricity landscape is on the brink of monumental change. World electricity demand has been growing by about 3% per
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Figure 1 World energy-related CO₂ emissions after direct air capture (DAC) (© DNV 2024)
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