Decarbonisation Technology May 2025 Issue

45.000.000 40.000.000 35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000

Year

Figure 1 Global carbon dioxide emissions from 1970 to the present day. Data extracted from the JRC EDGAR database (JRC, 2025)

It is widely recognised that there is a gap between the announced measures in the NDCs from each country and the level of reductions needed to curtail global emissions. Additionally, the implementation of these plans is both slow and inadequate. One analysis by Bloomberg NE shows there to be an investment gap of 168% due to a combination of regulatory, market, and financial uncertainties (see Figure 2 ). The situation is even more complicated as some new and existing ‘players’ (large emission sources) were not accounted for when the Net Zero Plans were first prepared. These additional sources significantly increase energy demand and consequential GHG emissions.

Energy demand from the rapid growth of data centres and the emergence of AI data centres was not fully anticipated in earlier datasets. Such demand is sizeable and increasing and is estimated to reach more than 1,000 TWh/year by 2050 (see Figure 3 ). In the work to achieve the global consensus needed at the Paris Agreement in 2015, it was agreed that reporting emissions from military activities should be voluntary. Even during peacetime, emissions from military activities may constitute as much as 7% of global emissions ( Scientists for Global Responsibility, 2022 ). An additional, though less predictable, source of emissions is from armed conflicts,

9,000

+2%

Clean industry Electried heat Electried transport Hydrogen CCS Energy storage Nuclear Power grids Renewable energy

+37%

7,756

7,635

+168%

6,000

5,575

3,000

2,080

Immediate investment gap

2025-30

2031-35

2036-50

2024

Figure 2 Comparison of 2024 energy transition investment vs required annualised levels under the Bloomberg NEF Net Zero Scenario (NZS). Future values are obtained from the New Energy Outlook (NEO). Source: (Bloomberg NEF, 2025)