Decarbonisation Technology - February 2024 Issue

ranked decarbonisation steps. The outcome results from three contributors: i. Accumulation : Adding the different decarbonisation steps. ii. Interaction : Accounting for interactions between the individual steps. iii. Time dimension : A trajectory implies the steps will be implemented in a staggered order. A detailed impact assessment is required for at least two periods (2030 and 2050 in Figure 6), with possible interpolation for the intermediate periods. Tools: energy system and process simulation Spreadsheet modelling can be used to estimate the cumulative impact of different decarbonisation actions. However, it may not allow for establishing material and utility balances of the system accurately and even less for assessing the interaction between subsystems. An Integrated Process, Energy, Emissions and Economics Model (IP3EM) consisting of digital twins of the energy and process systems is the best possible tool to achieve this (Mitchell, 2023). Stakeholder interaction Even though technical evaluation is important, it is only accurate to the extent that the inputs and assumptions are realistic. Thus, close and regular interaction among industrial

stakeholders is crucial, as discussed in the next section. Trajectory development: cluster specifics Challenges of cluster decarbonisation are similar to those of individual sites. However, the complexity and divided ownership pose additional challenges that need to be overcome to capture the potential synergies of cluster integration. Complexity In trajectory development, technical issues related to subsystems may arise, but risk management should also be considered and can be addressed as follows: • Partitioning the task : Despite improvements in information software and hardware technology, the trajectory build methodology described in the previous section may be difficult to apply on large industrial clusters when time and resources are limited. Therefore, a sliced or phased approach can be used to develop a proof of concept case as a first step with a focus on:  A geographic subcluster only; for example, limit the Scale dimension of Figure 1.  Constrain the Scope dimension to what is expected to contribute most to decarbonisation, most likely energy. • Risk mitigation: Preparedness is key to

Stand-alone projects

Industrial zone

2050

Current

2030

Opex / emissions

Capex

BAUT SPT

Energy balance Material balance

Low Capex

Stakeholder feedback

Inter-site collaboration

Higher Capex

Novel technologies

Risk analysis / capital constraints

CO abatement cost + curve

Circularity

CCS

CCU

Pre-qualication / ranking

Trajectory construction, validation and optimisation

Figure 6 Decarbonisation trajectory build