Decarbonisation Technology - February 2024 Issue

Trajectory build The development of a decarbonisation trajectory to carbon neutrality, for an individual site or a cluster, should be done in steps by building the following material and energy/emission balances and intermediate trajectories: • Base case : The first step consists of establishing the current heat and utility balance. • Business As Usual Trajectory (BAUT) : The next step in the evolution of material and utility balances, assuming the system itself does not change but only adapts to external factors. The BAUT is based on the expected future output for all industries in the site or cluster. For instance, the refining sector faces a challenge as the demand for fossil fuels for road vehicles will drop, particularly in Europe. Polymer production may also be affected due to the need to reduce plastic waste. Unabated, the global annual production of plastics could increase from 400 to 1,600 million tonnes (Scott, et al., 2020). This massive volume is unsustainable if a substantial part of it is not recycled. • Stated policy trajectory (SPT) : Outlines the system’s evolution if existing plans and policies are implemented. The industries within a cluster should have clear intentions and plans. An SPT is best developed based on plans with a certain technical and financial maturity. Furthermore, the stated policies of the different cluster entities must be aligned and consolidated: Are they based on the same assumptions, and can they be combined? Therefore, developing an

SPT trajectory for a cluster of sites may require adjusting the individual SPTs to achieve overall coherence. Additionally, a financial and risk evaluation may need to be performed. • Compliant trajectory (CT) : Taking action to decrease emissions according to a set decarbonisation reduction trajectory. Existing plans and strong commitments may fall short of ambitious net-zero targets. Therefore, the compliant trajectory includes actions in addition to the SPT to close the emissions trajectory gap. Figure 5 directionally shows the options available to close the gap between the stated policy and compliant trajectories. The impact of combined decarbonisation initiatives differs from the sum of individual steps. Therefore, properly assessing the decarbonisation initiatives requires a system- wide consolidation, as well as the right tools and stakeholder interactions. Figure 6 shows how the trajectory is constructed:  Pre-qualification and ranking, as previously described.  BAUT build.  SPT and CT build using the pre-qualified and “ The industries within a cluster should have clear intentions and plans. An SPT is best developed based on plans with a certain technical and financial maturity ”

100%

Business as usual trajectory

Stated policies trajectory

Contributors

Low C apex / inter-site collaboration High Capex optimisation New low - ca r bon technology

2030 target

CCS

CCU

2020

2030

2050

Figure 5 Decarbonisation trajectory development