CCU/New process technology
Ranking
Lower revenue energy/ Infrastructural/ Novel decarb technology
Carbon abatement cost (CAC)
RTO/Energy saving/Flare reduction
CCS
CCU
CCS
Identication
Trajectory build
Emission reduction
CAC
Risk/capital
Figure 2 Decarbonisation trajectory development
A recommended approach involves two work streams: an offline desktop trajectory development, which uses a model or digital twin of the system, and an implementation stream. Part 1 of this article discusses developing a decarbonisation trajectory, while Parts 2 and 3 will focus on implementing the decarbonisation trajectory and how to sustain the benefits of an optimised industrial cluster. It is important to note that the two work streams should not be fully separated exercises. Decarbonisation trajectory development The trajectory development for decarbonisation is a work stream conducted offline. As shown in Figure 2 , it consists of the following consecutive steps: • Identify the steps that can contribute to decarbonisation. • Compile a ranking order for implementation based on carbon abatement cost while accounting for risk and capital requirements. • Build a trajectory. This exercise applies to decarbonising both individual sites and industrial clusters. The size of industrial clusters and the fact that clusters are systems with distributed ownership further complicates the process. Identifying decarbonisation contributors The plans and decarbonisation targets for the individual sites are the basic inputs for developing the decarbonisation strategy for the
cluster. Additionally, the future infrastructure and system characteristics and constraints need to be understood. This includes the following factors:
• Carbon intensity of grid electricity • New industrial entrants and leavers • CO 2 storage options • Electricity grid constraints
• Infrastructural projects considered or planned relating to, for example, the power grid, district heating, H 2 or CO 2 infrastructure. The technical options can be bundled into the following classes: • Low-to-medium investment cost options include real-time optimisation, flaring reduction, and energy system optimisation that require limited equipment changes, such as exchangers and smaller drivers. Additionally, it involves a small investment in piping infrastructure and limited enhancements to site or cluster power infrastructure. • Inter-site collaboration will be incentivised when adjacent sites integrate utility systems. Although capital costs can vary widely, they are expected to range from medium to very high. However, optimising production processes by exchanging products or optimising product logistics presents additional opportunities to offset costs. • High to very high investment options involve optimising capital energy systems (such as large compressors, gas turbines), revamping process units, fortifying the major grid, and
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