ReFuelEU Aviation
2025
2030
2032
2035
2040
2045
2050
% SAF mandate
2%
6%
6%
20%
34%
42%
70%
of which: Aviation biofuels and recycled carbon fuels (from waste) % synthetic aviation fuel (eSAF) from renewable power (including nuclear)
2%
4.8%
4%
15%
24%
27%
35%
--
1.2%
2%
5%
10%
15%
35%
Table 1 Evolution of SAF incorporation between 2025 and 2050 (EU regulatory framework and decarbonisation strategy)
life-cycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. SAF made of bio-residues (bio-SAF) and synthetic aviation fuels made from renewable power, water and CO₂ (eSAF) can achieve even higher life-cycle emissions reductions. Whereas 100% SAF is being developed and tested, SAF is currently limited to blends of up to 50% with conventional jet fuel. There are indications that the highly paraffinic nature of fuels such as SAF produced through Fischer– Tropsch-based BTL or PTL pathways can have benefits by reducing particulate matter emissions and contrail formation. Drivers of SAF adoption Passenger attitudes and regulatory frameworks are the main drivers for SAF adoption. Passengers’ awareness of environmental sustainability is rising, compelling the aviation industry to explore and adopt low-emission alternatives. Although high-quality offset schemes continue to play a role, there is a notable rise in interest in SAF. Perhaps more relevant, however, are the regulatory
frameworks and incentives in place in the EU and the US. In the EU, legislation sets targets and obligations for overall SAF supply, with sub- targets for eSAF supply (see box opposite for definitions). The Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) is the legal framework for the development of clean energy across all sectors of the EU economy. In addition, the recently adopted ReFuelEU Aviation regulation requires aircraft operators, EU airports, and aviation fuel suppliers to reduce the EU’s GHG emissions from aviation with mandated levels for SAF supplied in EU airports. These mandated levels, summarised in Table 1 , are relatively modest for 2025 but will escalate rapidly over time to 70% SAF incorporation in 2050, half of which should be eSAF. Table 2 shows that a minimum production volume of 8,900 ktpa of SAF will be required by 2035, of which 2,200 ktpa should be eSAF (these figures are likely to be conservative as they are based on the 2019 EU jet fuel market and exclude potential market growth). It should be noted that imports are allowed, so the SAF does not have to be produced in the EU, just supplied in the EU. In the US, the adoption of SAF is encouraged through tax credits, specifically under the Inflation Reduction Act at the federal level, in addition to specific state-level Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits, stimulating domestic production. Although the outlook for SAF- specific tax credits remains uncertain beyond 2027, alternative incentives, such as the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture and storage and the 45V credit for clean hydrogen, are in
Pre-COVID-19 jet fuel consumption
2030
2035
EU jet fuel market in 2019 (excl. UK) = 44 Mtpa SAF supplied in EU, ktpa 2,700
8,900
of which: synthetic aviation fuel (eSAF) supplied in EU, ktpa
530
2,200
Table 2 Projections of EU SAF requirements by 2030 and 2035 (based on the 2019 EU jet fuel market, so likely conservative estimates)
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