Natural gas/fossil fuel feedstock
Figure 3 Solutions for the growing hydrogen economy
transport fuels. Beyond 2030, hydrogen demand for mobility and power will grow to as much as 660 Mt by 2040 (Hydrogen Council, 2021). Hydrogen will be used either as a fuel in its own right or for derivatives such as e-fuels for aviation and marine transport. Energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, and glass will also transition to hydrogen for power. Hydrogen can also supplement batteries as an energy store for balancing the intermittency of renewable electricity and fluctuations in demand. Between 2030-2040, we envisage capacity in blue/green hydrogen growing to meet emerging demand. However, while hydrogen works as an efficient fuel, it requires large- scale infrastructure and statutory support – it needs to be kept in its gas form, in cryogenic liquid tanker trucks or gaseous tube trailers. Establishing this infrastructure is also crucial to facilitate the consumer-level scaling of direct air capture essential for carbon drawdowns from the atmosphere, which goes hand in hand with the new fuel sources. Industry has shown that hydrogen is a viable fuel source, with its end form of green hydrogen being one of the most sustainable options we know to exist. With new carbon capture technologies developed, the race is now on for authorities to make the necessary investment in underlying infrastructure to allow the technology to be delivered en masse.
technology with Honeywell’s carbon capture technology to further reduce the carbon intensity of blue hydrogen. With the evolving legislative environment, an integrated solution was identified with low carbon intensity as a key target. According to JM-UOP calculations, the result is a solution which will enable Scope 1 emissions to be less than 0.1 kgCO 2 /kgH 2 by carbon capture rates above 99%, supporting the eligibility for production tax credits within the IRA, meaning projects can access the support they need to be deployed rapidly. The solution is available at scale and provides eligibility for production tax credits within the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Honeywell, 2022). After 2030, this begins to change as capacity in both renewable electricity and electrolysis (for green hydrogen production) is added. In the 2030-2040 timeline, we will need both blue and green hydrogen as replacement sources of fuel. The carbon intensity of the electricity mix used for the electrolysis of water to produce the hydrogen determines the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. The largest electrolysers today are around 100 MW. Green hydrogen will approach cost parity with blue as the capital cost of electrolysers comes down and as the technical capacity of electrolysers increases. Then the cost of renewable power will also play a role. The latest range of membranes for electrolysis, developed by UOP, will reduce the capital cost by around 29%. 3 The hydrogen economy will be driven by demand. Hydrogen demand is currently 90 Mt for chemicals production and to meet specification and quality requirements for
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