100
450
wt% non-combustible products
kg CO e/bbl crude
60 70 80 90
400
350
300
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
0
Figure 4 Refinery Scope 3 emissions intensity (each column represents a specific refinery site)
in terms of their resilience, as shown in Figure 4 . Whilst the responsibility for Scope 3 emissions along the hydrocarbon value chain remains unclear, several companies are including such emissions in their net-zero aspirations. We have benchmarked the Scope 3 emissions from over 500 refineries using Wood Mackenzie’s Refinery Evaluation Model - Chemicals. This detailed asset analysis shows that unless the yield of non-combustible products (including petrochemicals) is over half of the product slate, the Scope 3 emissions intensity for the entire site is largely in the range of 300 to 400 kg of CO2 per barrel of crude processed. The key risk associated with the cost of a refinery’s Scope 3 emissions is its location, as that will determine the carbon charge applied. The variation in carbon charges between two sites in different locations is likely to be far greater than the difference in their emissions
intensity. Beyond our usual competitiveness metric of net cash margins, location and the applicable carbon emissions legislation will be key to a site’s longevity. Biofuel circularity could unlock the energy transition for refiners Aside from petrochemicals and decarbonising operations, investment in biofuels can be attractive both commercially and as a means of lowering the Scope 3 carbon intensity of liquid fuels. Refiners in Europe and the US are shifting from fossil-based investments to adapt to the energy transition through hydrotreated vegetable oil (renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel), as detailed in Figure 5 . These investments reflect their growing commercial viability, which is regulatory driven. There is, however, a constraint, which is the availability of appropriate feedstocks. Our
350
350
Renewable diesel capacity , kb/d
Sustainable av ia tion fuel capacity , kb/d
300
300
Existing
Investment
Existing
Investment
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
North America
Greater Europe Asia Paci c
North America
Greater Europe Asia Paci c
Figure 5 Regional hydrotreated vegetable oil capacity, kb/d
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