with less”. In addition, the percentage of that energy pool that is petroleum and coal based must decrease by over 25%, as a minimum.
+40% Energy Demand
+ 1.9 Billion
-27% Oil + Coal
-35% Intensity
Hence, the energy we need to drive our economie , he t and c ol our homes and businesses, cook our meals, a d transport our p ople and goods must now largely come from renewable sources – wind, nuclear, solar, renewable hydrogen, and renewable electricity. Significant, technically sound, and market driven diversification of our energy sources nd providers, along with behavior change by consumers and treamli ed governmental mandates a d incentives, is needed to me t this challenge. No “silver bullet” exists to achieve this goal – it requires an “all of the above” strategy. Mitigating Unintended Consequences Moving to “green” renewable based energy sources has to consider the whole system, including the cycle of “harvesting”, production, processing, and use. For instance, what is to be done with the increased waste from wind turbines, lithium batteries, and PV solar panels, as most of these elements are not curre tly recyclable and have a 10 to 20 y ar useful life? What is the consequence t the environment from harvesting r w materials and then landfarming waste, given that recycling technologies are presently more carbon intensive than first generation production?
energy demand is expected to grow from ~ 635 quadrillion BTU to over 900 quadrillion BTU by 2050, which represents more than a 40% increase over that period. However, to meet the GHG reduction targets, the total energy per GDP (i.e. energy intensity) must decrease by around 35% on a global basis. In simple terms, to continue to drive GDP growth for an ever-growing population, we need the energy to do so, but now have to do ‘more with less’. In addition, the percentage of that energy pool that is petroleum and coal-based must decrease by over 25%, as a minimum. Hence, the energy we need to drive our economies, heat and cool our homes and businesses, cook our meals, and transport our people and goods must now come mainly from renewable sources – wind, nuclear, solar, renewable hydrogen, and renewable electricity. Significant, technically sound, and market- driven diversification of our energy sources and providers, along with behaviour change by consumers and streamlined governmental mandates and incentives, is needed to meet this challenge. No ‘silver bullet’ exists to achieve this goal – it requires an ‘all of the above’ strategy. Mitigating unintended consequences Moving to ‘green’ renewable-based energy sources has to consider the whole system, including the cycle of ‘harvesting’, production, processing, and use. For instance, what is to be done with the increased waste from wind turbines, lithium batteries, and PV solar panels, as most of these elements are not currently recyclable and have a 10- to 20-year useful life? What is the consequence to the environment from harvesting raw materials and then landfarming waste, given that recycling technologies are presently more carbon intensive than first-generation production? Using biosources for fuel such as soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed (canola), ethanol (sugar cane or sugar beets), or other bio-sourced components pits land use for food to feed the world’s growing population against a more lucrative value of fuel
sources. Does it make sense to deforest land to plant seeds for fuel? While using used cooking oils (UCO) as a source for renewable fuels fits well with the recycling mantra, the application of virgin oils for renewable production will strain the tension between food vs fuel. One of the less-discussed aspects of ‘green’ is the water consumption necessary for both mineral harvesting and biosource production. Water is a scarce resource and, in many regions of the world, arid conditions require severe water conservation. Hence, the conversation on water use, re-use, and stewardship must be on a similar level as the shift in energy sources. Metals and battery balances While EV adoption rates remain low in the US and Japan, with Japan’s marginal power production coming from coal-powered plants with high CO 2 -eq emissions, the EV share in new car sales has shown an increasing trend in many other developed countries in Europe as well as China. This trend will continue to spread (x25 EV car sales in 2040 compared to 2020), and it is anticipated that the total battery demand annual growth rate will be around 38% (CAGR), or an x25 factor in 10 years. Within the battery sector, over 40% of batteries will be dedicated to stationary energy storage, while 60% will be used for passenger and commercial vehicles, as well as ships. Most battery raw material tonnage demand will follow the battery trend, around a 40% increase per year, from about 0.5 million tonnes in 2020 (cobalt + silicone + lithium + nickel + manganese + graphite) to 12 million tonnes in 2030. Taking lithium as an example, its extraction requires large amounts of water, and results in up to 15 tonnes of CO 2 emission per ton of lithium for hard rock mining. One of the foremost anticipated future constraints and risks is the high concentration in terms of players, not only in the mining industry but also in the processing/refining industry. The main metals under consideration are lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite (batteries),
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