Decarbonisation Technology – August 2021

First principles of energy transition – Part 1

This two-part series will first focus on hydrogen, batteries, metals and electrical infrastructure to see the actual impacts of energy transition and decarbonisation

Jean-Gaël Le Floc’h, Mel Larson, Darren York and Robert Ohmes Becht

E nergy transition – what does it really mean? In the current lexicon of society, terms and concepts such as decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, carbon neutrality, and energy transition are becoming commonplace, not only within the energy industry but also with the common consumer. Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, shifts in virtual work

from a first principles perspective. Doing so will help provide focus and clarity on the challenges the

energy industry (i.e. utilities, transportation fuel providers, and petrochemical companies) faces and will allow both the consumer and producer to rationalise the choices and technical challenges that

must be addressed to meet these targets. This two-part series will first focus on various examples in hydrogen, batteries, metals, and electrical infrastructure to help illuminate the actual impacts of energy transition and decarbonisation. The second part will provide additional examples within hydrogen and energy optimisation and outline several considerations and options for the energy industry to apply to address this transition. The sheer magnitude of the change The current goal of the Paris Accord is to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2°C by 2050. While the goal seems reasonable enough, competing forces put serious pressure on achieving the goal. Firstly, global energy use is strongly driven by total population and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth. The global population is projected to grow from about 7.8 illion people in 2020 to over 9.7 billion by 2050. This represents a ~25% growth over that period, and the bulk of that growth will occur in emerging markets, while at the same time postmodern regions will be flat or declining in population. Over that same time, total annual

and travel, and changes in regulatory requirements and economic incentives have dramatically accelerated shifts in the energy industry to produce cleaner and lower carbon intensity fuels and products. However, does the average consumer understand the extent of fossil- derived energy sources and products and the implications of these shifts and mandates away from fossil fuels on their daily lives and access to affordable fuels, products, and energy? How will refiners and petrochemical organisations respond to these changes in a dynamic marketplace that demands both profitability and environmental stewardship? Can the energy industry and front-line consumers achieve carbon neutrality by the target dates, and what changes are required to meet those targets? To answer these questions, we must first look at some of the fundamentals influencing these market changes and mandates. Our intent is not to pick ‘winners and losers’ or question the reality of climate change but to examine various examples

The Shear Magnitude f the Change The current goal of the Paris Accord is to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2°C by 2050. While the goal seems reasonable enough, there are competing forces that put serious pressure on achieving the goal. First, global energy use is strongly driven by total population and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth. Global population is projected to grow from about 7.8 billion people in 2020 to over 9.7 billion by 2050, which r presents a ~25% growth over that period, and the bulk of that growth will