PTQ Q3 2024 Issue

Hybrid model of gasoline blend

High-fidelity gasoline blend models are essential to reduce octane number giveaway. Using machine learning can enhance a well-known non-linear analytic blend model

Gadi Briskman, Ariel Kigel and Tom Rosenwasser Modcon-Systems Ltd.

G asoline blending is the process of combining various components to produce a final gasoline product that meets specific quality and performance standards. The goal of blending is to create a fuel that optimises engine performance, improves fuel efficiency, and meets regulatory requirements. The components used in gasoline blending can include: • Base gasoline • Oxygenates • Octane enhancers • Stabilisers and antioxidants • Detergents and deposit control additives • Corrosion inhibitors. Base gasoline is typically a refinery-produced gasoline that serves as the primary component of the final blend. Base gasoline can vary in properties such as octane rating, volatility, and sulphur content. Oxygenates are compounds that contain oxygen and are added to gasoline to improve combustion efficiency and reduce emissions. Ethanol and methanol are common oxygenates used in gasoline blending. Oxygenates can also enhance the octane rating of gasoline. Octane enhancers are additives or components that increase gasoline octane ratings. Higher octane ratings help prevent engine knocking and improve engine per - formance. Common octane enhancers include alkylates, ethers (for example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether, MTBE, or ethyl tert-butyl ether, ETBE), and aromatics (such as ben- zene, toluene, and xylene). Stabilisers and antioxidant additives are used to improve the stability of the gasoline and prevent degradation over time, which can lead to the formation of gum and varnish deposits in fuel systems. Detergent and deposit control addi- tives help keep engine components clean by preventing the build-up of deposits on fuel injectors, intake valves, and com- bustion chambers. Clean engine components can improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. Corrosion inhibitor addi- tives protect fuel system components from corrosion caused by moisture and other contaminants present in the fuel. Gasoline blending is a carefully controlled process that takes into account factors such as regional fuel specifica- tions, environmental regulations, and market demands. Blenders must balance considerations such as cost, perfor - mance, and environmental impact to produce a final gaso- line product that meets both regulatory requirements and consumer expectations.

Profitability improvement Achieving an improvement in the profitability of gaso- line blending, in its essence, drills down to engaging the least costly available blend components while fulfilling the requirements on the quantity of the produced gasoline batch and complying with the specifications on the prop- erties of the blended product. Ensuring the latter has tradi- tionally led refiners to exceed the minimal specification – the phenomenon known in the industry as a quality giveaway. Rather than a mistake, the giveaway results from the refinery’s conscious decision to incur extra costs in blend components rather than risking the gasoline batch not meeting the specification, hence requiring additional costly processing. Reducing giveaways is an obvious direction to increase refinery operation marginality. However, its imple- mentation cannot be reduced to one measure and requires a concerted implementation of several process and equip- ment improvements. The octane number stands out as a gasoline property with significant economic ramifications, particularly regard- ing its impact on refinery profitability. With an average loss estimated at approximately $0.7 per barrel and consider- ing the substantial annual gasoline production volume in the US, which surpasses 3.22 billion barrels, the potential losses stemming from octane number giveaway alone could conservatively amount to a staggering $2.1 per year for US refineries. This substantial financial implication arises from the intrinsic connection between gasoline grade market prices and the octane number specification associated with each grade. The market dynamics dictate that gasoline blends pos- sessing higher octane numbers command greater value within the refinery sector. Consequently, high-octane com- ponents of gasoline blends become prized assets for refin- eries, as they contribute significantly to the overall value of the final product. Given this economic reality, discussions significant economic ramifications, particularly regarding its impact on refinery profitability The octane number stands out as a gasoline property with

PTQ Q3 2024