Decarbonisation Technology - February 2022 Issue

Resilience in the transition to low (zero) emissions vehicles Low carbon fuels can decarbonise the existing vehicle fleet, buying time to invest in the infrastructure to support the optimumcombination of hybrid and BEVs

Robin Nelson Consulting Editor, Decarbonisation Technology

C OP26 calls for the acceleration of actions over the next decade to stay below a maximum average global increase of 2˚C and keep the 1.5˚C target in sight. The transition to zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs) is one such action. In their 2022 action plan, The Zero Emission Vehicles Transition Council (ZEVTC) aims to accelerate the global transition to ZEVs by making them accessible, affordable, and sustainable in all regions by 2030 (ZEVTC, 2021). But will we ever achieve a zero emissions vehicle? Perhaps the most common definition of a ZEV is a vehicle that produces zero exhaust emissions (CO 2 and lower amounts of pollutants such as nitrous oxides and particulate matter). The problem is that such a definition is incomplete as it does not account for emissions during the production of the energy carrier used to power the vehicle or during the production of the vehicle. From a climate perspective, this is a serious omission. Expanding the definition to include emissions from the production of the energy carrier would lead to a ZEV being defined as “a vehicle that has been powered using a renewable electricity supply over the operating lifetime of the vehicle”. This definition includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and direct hydrogen-powered vehicles when the hydrogen is produced from electrolysis using renewable electricity (green hydrogen). However, given that in 2020 there were no regions of the world where the electricity supply was fully renewable, such a definition seems to be full of future promise (see Figure 1 ).

Carbon emissions from electricity production In the recent COP26, the tensions on the issue of phasing down coal power are important in this context: • China is one of the largest markets for electric vehicles, but coal power constitutes 60% of the installed electricity generation capacity in 2021. • Although India is making progress in the move to renewable power, coal power comprises 55.8% of installed power capacity in 2021 (IEA, 2021). D’Cunha reported that in 2018, 31 million homes in India were still without electricity (D’Cunha, 2018). Around 700 million people in India gained access to electricity between 2000 and 2018, and in March 2019 the Government of India declared it had achieved the full electrification of all households except those that refused access (IEA, 2021). • In 2021, over 640 million Africans (40%) do not yet have access to electricity (African Development Bank, 2021). In sub-Saharan Africa, a lack of electrification means that renewables will not displace a significant share of fossil-based energy resources before 2050 (DNV, 2021). • While EVs in China, India, and some African cities are important in the fight to end local air pollution, they should not be considered ZEVs unless the emissions from coal power stations are abated using carbon capture and storage or usage technologies. Carbon emissions during vehicle production When CO 2 emissions are considered over the entire life-cycle of the vehicle, the term ZEV is even more of a misnomer. Volvo states that emissions during production of a Volvo XC40 with an ICE amount to 17 tonnes, whilst the C40 Recharge (BEV) version produces 25 tonnes of