Decarbonisation Technology - February 2022 Issue

11,000 10,000

9,825 (90%)

Princeton Net Zero America E+ scenario UC Bereley 2035 Report EIA AEO 2021 Reference case NREL/NARIS Electrication scenario

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000

6,498 (89%) 5,253 (86%) 5,061 (45%)

5,784 (68%) 5,279 (45%)

4,653 (77%)

4,051 (21%)

4,372 (41%)

2020

2035

2050

Notes: The values in parentheses are the share of generation from renewable resources. including wind, solar. hydro, geothermal. and biomass. Other “clean· or carbon-free sources, such as nuclear power and fossil fuels with carbon capture. are not included in the percentages.

Figure 3 US electricity generation in select carbon reduction scenarios Sources: (Larson, 2021) The E+ scenario assumes aggressive end-use electrification to reach net-zero carbon emissions economy-wide by 2050. (NREL, 2021) The electrification scenario assumes electrification of new transportation and heating demand and reduces power sector carbon emissions 80% by 2050 in US and Canada. 2035 data point is the average of 2034 and 2036 data. (CEPP, UCAL, 2020). The 2035 report models a pathway to 90% carbon-free electricity by 2035. (US Energy Information Administration, 2021) The reference case assumes no policy changes and current laws and regulations, including current expiration dates, apply. Deloitte Analysis

cost of the renewable transition. For many, it is less about the cost of renewables themselves, but rather the investment required to transmit and integrate large quantities of wind and solar power in the coming years. In fact, nearly three- quarters (73%) said wind and solar power are cheaper than many other sources of electricity, but we will need to continue to invest in modernising the grid and adding transmission and storage to integrate these resources. Another 35% said that

and state renewable portfolio standards, as well as further expediting the process for connecting renewables to the grid. Again, DER could be important, as 73% of respondents saw a role for DER in fulfilling increased electricity demand. Funding renewables and supporting infrastructure while keeping electricity affordable The third greatest challenge for the US power and utilities executives surveyed involved the

Coal Natural gas Onshore wind Unsubsidised

118

14 Subsidised Utility-scale solar-plus-storage Unsubsidised Subsidised Utility-scale solar Unsubsidised Subsidised

Figure 4 Levelised cost of energy for generation resources in the USA (US$/MWh) Sources: Wind and solar: (NREL, 2021): Coal and Natural gas: (IEA, 2020)