Decarbonisation Technology - February 2022 Issue

help raise biofuel demand, in all cases including rigorous sustainability criteria (IEA, 2021). Within the European context, a range of complementary technologies in vehicle powertrains together with low carbon fuels increases the resilience needed to manage the identified uncertainties. From a global perspective, there is no single solution that fits in every nation, or across different regions within a nation. Indeed, the ZEVTC recognises that “national contexts and policy approaches may differ”. In the transition to low emissions transport, sustainable, low carbon fuels used in hybrid vehicles are complementary to, rather than competitive with, BEVs. Considering the optimum combinations of advanced powertrain technologies (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs) together with low carbon energy carriers (renewable electricity and sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels) will give the optimum outcome for different situations. As the ERTRAC roadmap illustrates, national roadmaps for the decarbonisation of transport should be progressive and managed, allowing the combination of drivetrains and energy carriers to evolve as vital infrastructure is established. These roadmaps can support the ZEVTC objective to ensure a “global transition where no country or community is left behind”.

aim to deliver future outcomes should include a process to identify the uncertainties and associated risks. The decarbonisation of road transport is no exception. The use of scenarios to test resilience against the identified uncertainties and risks can help: • The assumptions for renewable electricity capacity growth, developing charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing capacity, already discussed, represent the main uncertainties with respect to EVs. • Global supply chains for metals including cobalt and nickel may become constraints in the future (McKinsey, 2018), (Ricardo, 2018), leading to R&D programmes that reduce reliance on these metals (CNBC, 2021), (Energy, 2021). • Uncertainties for low carbon liquid fuels include:  Commercialisation of new technologies to expand non-food crop biofuel production, without indirect land use change (ILUC) concerns.  Management of the supply chain and logistics related to collection of biomass and waste for sustainable biofuels.  The level of investment in carbon capture storage and utilisation and to scale up hydrogen production for synthetic low carbon e-fuels.  Regulatory support that includes the contribution of low carbon liquid and gaseous fuels in vehicle emissions standards. Regulatory measures should include sustainable low carbon fuels The IEA proposes a combination of regulatory measures such as mandates, low carbon fuel standards, and GHG intensity targets, together with carbon pricing and financial incentives to

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Robin Nelson robin.nelson@decarbonisation technology.com