mid, high and low scenarios (ICAO, 2021), are summarised in Table 1 . IEA Energy Scenarios The IEA lays out pathways for global aviation that are consistent either with its Sustainable Development Scenario, which aims to limit the increase in average temperature to 1.8ºC, or its more recent Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Scenario, which limits the increase in average temperature to 1.5ºC (IEA, 2021). Fuel efficiency improvements The ICAO scenarios look at growth in air traffic using passenger and freight volumes. Fuel efficiency improvements can temper the impact of traffic growth on fuel demand. In 2010 ICAO adopted a goal for an average 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement in international aviation. The IEA notes that the aviation industry achieved an average 2.4% fuel efficiency improvement between 2000 and 2010, then 1.9% between 2010 and 2019 (IEA, 2022). ICAO considers that the introduction of new aircraft with hybrid engines, along with other efficiency-enhancing features, could help achieve its target over the next decades. In the near term, the economic pain felt by the industry during the pandemic meant that while fleet owners took older, less efficient aircraft out of service, they also postponed purchases of the latest and most efficient aircraft. European scenarios for SAF demand This section draws on three of the published scenarios, the IEA NZE and SDS and the ICAO High Growth Scenarios, to explore how demand for SAF could evolve, should the levels proposed by the Commission by adopted. Whilst the analysis described in this article is based on published scenarios, neither IEA nor ICAO were approached to endorse the subsequent analysis for Europe. To avoid
50.00
EU-27
45.93
45.25
40.00
Norway UK
30.00
25.40
20.00
20.33
12.37
12.23
10.00
0.34 4.97
4.68
0.88
0.85
0.33
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
Transport Association (IATA) reported global passenger traffic had started to recover to 40% of 2019 levels in 2021 and 61% in 2022 (IATA, 2022a). Global demand for air cargo or freight was more robust during this period, with demand in 2022 expected to be 13% above 2019 levels (IATA, 2021). The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), in its Waypoint 2050 study, estimates air traffic demand globally is not likely to fully recover to 2019 levels until 2024 (ATAG, 2020). European air traffic in the first six months of 2022 had recovered to nearly 80% compared with the same period in 2019 (IATA, 2022a), (IATA, 2022b). We are living in a time when the risks of disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic, worsening impacts of climate change, prolongation or escalation of conflicts, and economic recession are all too real. While scenarios can help, any exploration of future demand over a 25-year duration should include a note of caution. ICAO aviation growth scenarios The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has published three scenarios looking at growth in passenger and freight traffic, post- Covid-19, with projections towards 2050. The growth forecasts for Europe, within the ICAO Figure 2 2019-21 demand collapse due to Covid-19 travel restrictions Data sources: (Eurostat, 2022a), (Eurostat, 2022b), (ONSS, 2022)
Europe
Pre-Covid
Post-Covid
ICAO Scenario
Mid
High
Mid
Low
Passenger (RPK)
3.0%
3.1%
2.7%
2.3%
Freight (FTK)
3.0%
2.4%
1.9%
1.5%
Table 1 ICAO traffic growth forecasts for Europe (Revenue Passenger-KM and Freight Tonne-KM)
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