Million tonnes CO per annum
CO removed in 2021
CO removal needed 2030
Estimated CCS Plant size
Sector
CCS facilities needed in 2030
÷
=
Operational projects
Additional projects needed
Iron & steel
1
10
4
1 2
Pipeline projects
Blue H / ammonia Cement Fossil fuel processing Power CCS
1
27
27
55
220
4
1
33
160
2
19
53
80
8
3
125
1.5
7
17
51
75
3
23
30
<1
40
1.5
0
170
4
3
39
40
BECCS
<1
60
1
1
57
60
2
DACCS
37
800
-
Total
Figure 6 Over 200 additional projects need to enter the CCUS project pipeline in the early 2020s
are currently under development. Given the long lead times associated with CCUS projects, reaching our 2030 volumes requires additional projects to be initiated in the first half of the 2020s, and actions to be taken to accelerate project development timeframes where possible. Total capital investment required to deliver this pathway could reach almost $5 trillion over the next 30 years and exceed $400 billion per annum by 2050 – a manageable figure within the context of the overall energy transition. Past growth has been slow, with multiple project cancellations and disappointing cost reduction. Partly this reflects improved economics for other decarbonisation levers but also policy and coordination failures that must be addressed. Six critical actions in the 2020s To deliver this growth will require action by governments – acting either directly or as regulators, oil and gas companies, other industries, and finance providers. Specific policies to drive this scale of development will need to reflect national and regional circumstances and should be informed by indicative targets for development at the national/regional level. The ETC recommends six critical actions in the 2020s to achieve the scale of CCUS needed in the next decade: Overcoming the green premium to make CCUS deployment economic through, for example, carbon pricing and early-stage financial support
where needed – scaled through a combination of government and industry mechanisms (such as low-carbon product standards, buyer coalitions, procurement mechanisms). Developing enabling infrastructures such as shared transport pipelines and storage sites. Government and industry can develop CCUS hubs that enable economies of scale. Targeting R&D and deployment support towards high capture, next-generation CCUS technologies, as well as developing innovative business models to extend CCUS from large players only to midcap entities. Regulating and managing risks to ensure responsible and secure CCUS development by assigning long-term responsibility for storage sites and meaningful penalties for leakage. Setting standards and regulations to ensure high CO₂ capture rates, alongside developing transparent, best-practice monitoring of CCUS. Building public support for CCUS’ appropriate role as a low-carbon technology by articulating a clear, strategic, but limited role for CCUS, and ensuring transparency on performance. The full report, Carbon Capture Utilisation & Storage in the Energy Transition: Vital but Limited , and an Executive Summary are available to download at www.energy- transitions.org .
Mike Hemsley
www.decarbonisationtechnology.com
28
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