Refining India September 2025 Issue

Gasication/ Fischer- Tropsch

Cost drivers Pathway

HEFA

Alcohol-to- J et

Power - to -L iquid

Costs for both RWGS and SOEC routes are highly driven by cost of electricity either for hydrogen production or co-electrolysis Both PtL routes are also Ca pex intensive and dependent on price of sustainable CO Despite steep decline, cost of green electricity remains substantial Capex for FT+RWGS and FT+SOEC have only limited reduction potential

Gasication-FT production cost is largely driven by capital cost

Rening ethanol into jet fuel presents biggest cost bucket Both steps (ethanol production and jet production) are C apex intensive with decline potential in rening due to learning eects Opex of rening step likely remains relatively high Ethanol production C apex already realised learning rate eects, resulting in relatively little additional potential

Price of feedstock accounts for majority of production cost and is market-driven based on scarceness of feedstock Cost of (green) H presents the biggest opportunity for HEFA production cost improvement Limited supply of feedstock and high hurdles for expanding feedstock base to purposely grown oil energy plants constrains feedstock cost reduction

Cost reduction constraints

Capex to build gasier remains high even after an expected strong decline between 2025 and 2030

Figure 2 Cost drivers and reduction constraints of SAF pathways2

itself to seamless co-processing of syncrude from renewable and fossil feedstock in an existing refinery, which can kickstart SAF production quickly with lower investments. Clearly, for future-proofing decarbonisation solutions, there is potential for adopting biofuel strategies for an innovative technology pathway that is sustainable, affordable, and scalable. Accordingly, JNKI is focusing on the production of SAF utilising gaseous feedstock like compressed biogas (CBG), produced in standalone upstream units, which is much easier to transport and handle compared to solid feedstock in a gasifier. CBG is produced offsite by the process of anaerobic decomposition of wastes and biomass sources, such as agricultural residue, cattle dung, sugarcane press mud, municipal solid waste, and sewage treatment plant waste, among others, which are available in abundance. The estimated CBG potential from various sources in India is estimated to be ~40-60 MMTPA, 4 and a very robust, country- wide CBG supply chain network is already in place, which makes this an attractive proposition. JNKI endeavours to bring this PBtL technology to India by proactively engaging with the licensor. The licensor – a pioneer in the development of sustainable synthesis gas technologies – and a global leader in FT synthesis, has signed an MoU to integrate and leverage each other’s innovative technology platforms to produce SAF and renewable diesel (RD) more cost-effectively. Process scheme The PBtL technology uses biogas (50-95% CH₄), waste CO₂, water and renewable power

as e-SAF pathways in the medium- to long-term perspective, as highlighted in Figure 1 . While the AtJ pathway involves the processing of alcohols like ethanol/isobutanol (methanol-to- jet is not yet an approved pathway), the FT and PtL (e-SAF) pathways involve the processing of syngas (H₂ + CO) produced from non-fossil fuels. Feedstock challenges, cost drivers, and cost reduction constraints of various production pathways are elaborated in Figure 2 . Dry CO₂ reforming and plasma pyrolysis of biomethane are two emerging Biogas-to-Liquid FT technologies that will assume importance in the medium- to long-term perspective, as feedstock and Opex-related challenges are foreseen for the AtJ pathway, especially due to the requirement of large tracts of land that compete with food production, biodiversity conservation, and other land uses. Shrinking arable land per capita for a populous country like India poses a significant challenge for the AtJ pathway, which uses bioethanol as feedstock. Therefore, in the future we expect to see more SAF (and e-SAF) produced globally from the FT pathway, which involves the processing of syngas (H₂ + CO) produced through different routes that include biogas reforming or pyrolysis, biomass- to-liquid (gasification), high-temperature (HT) co-electrolysis of CO₂ + water, and PtL via rWGS routes, as highlighted in Figure 3 . Potential for innovative technology pathway SAF pathways come with challenges and trade-offs among feedstock prices, operational complexity, and costs. The FT pathway lends

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