can be synthetic. It is processed to remove impurities and determines key properties like viscosity and oxidation stability. Lubricants are finished blends of base oils and additives, engineered to reduce friction, prevent wear, and control viscosity. By 2030, the base oil market is projected to grow from $33.21 billion (2023) to ~$46.73 billion (CAGR ~5%), while the lubricants market is expected to increase from $144.4 billion (2024) to $180.2 billion (CAGR 3.8%). Asia-Pacific leads both consumption and production. A major trend is the shift towards higher-performing Group II and Group III base oils due to superior stability and efficiency, align - ing with stricter environmental rules. Challenges include volatile raw material prices. While electric vehicles (EVs) reduce demand for conventional engine oils, they create new opportunities for specialised fluids like thermal man - agement and dielectric fluids. Production heavily relies on solvent refining and hydro - processing. Key hydroprocessing technologies include hydrorefining, hydrocracking, and various hydrofinish - ing forms. Catalytic dewaxing and wax isomerisation are also crucial. Leading technology providers include Axens, For refiners, the energy transition necessitates a strategic pivot towards specialised, high- performance, and sustainable solutions Chevron Lummus Global, ExxonMobil, and Shell Global Solutions. The industry is also integrating membrane sep - aration and hybrid processes, with catalyst development being paramount. Operational considerations include con- verting fuel hydrocracking units to lube hydrocracking and revamping existing equipment. The industry is exploring alternative base oil sources for sustainability and resource diversification, including re-refining used lubricants, developing bio-lubricants, and Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) lubricants. Additionally, wax produc - tion from Fischer-Tropsch and hybrid installations provides high-quality base oil feedstocks. For refiners, the energy transition necessitates a strategic pivot towards special - ised, high-performance, and sustainable solutions. To stay competitive, refiners must: • Invest in circular economy models by expanding re-refin - ing and optimising used oil collection. • Diversify feedstocks and products with bio-based/GTL base oils and specialised lubricants for new energy sectors (for example, EVs, renewable energy). • Decarbonise operations through energy efficiency, fuel switching, integrating green/blue hydrogen, and investing in CCUS. • Leverage digitalisation and advanced technologies like AI and digital twins. • Foster strategic partnerships with original equipment
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PTQ Q4 2025
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