• Process optimisation : AI-driven systems dynamically adjust operating parameters (such as temperature, pres- sure, flow rates) in real-time to maximise yields, minimise energy consumption, and optimise product quality. This includes AI-augmented APC for more adaptive perfor- mance, even across interconnected units or entire refinery complexes. • Intelligent automation : AI augments traditional auto- mation, enabling more autonomous and adaptive control, reducing manual intervention and human error, extend - ing to automated blending and intelligent supply chain management. • Safety and environmental monitoring : AI-powered visual analytics (cameras, drones) and wearable safety technol - ogy enable real-time detection of hazards or environmental excursions, improving response times. This synergistic integration of IIoT and AI/ML facilitates comprehensive data analytics, transforming raw data into Refineries are exploring strategies to meet rising hydrogen demand through plant expansion, off-gas utilisation, revamps, and over-the- fence supply actionable insights. This enables dynamic adjustments to crude sourcing/blending, optimises real-time maintenance, and enhances inventory/supply chain management. The evolution of cyber-physical systems further integrates dig- ital and physical worlds, fostering a resilient, efficient, and adaptable operational environment. Ultimately, digitalisa- tion drives significant productivity gains, enhanced oper - ational flexibility, and a stronger competitive edge in the evolving global energy landscape. Products in demand and renewable fuels investments There are multifaceted approaches and pivotal transfor- mations necessary, such as comprehensive examination of the strategic pivot towards producing high-demand, lower- carbon products and advanced renewable fuels (such as blue and green hydrogen production, refinery-petrochemical integration and crude-to-chemicals, lubricants/lube oil and base oil production, anode coke/graphite and needle coke production, biodiesel/renewable diesel/sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and electrofuels [e-fuels] or synthetic fuels). Blue and green hydrogen While grey hydrogen (produced via steam, autothermal, or dry reforming) is the current standard, there is a growing focus on blue hydrogen (natural gas with carbon capture) and green hydrogen (electrolysis using renewable energy), with numerous companies actively developing and imple - menting these technologies. Refineries are also exploring strategies to meet ris - ing hydrogen demand through plant expansion, off-gas
utilisation, revamps, and over-the-fence supply. Efficient hydrogen management, including pinch analysis and remote monitoring, along with optimisation of steam reforming, hydrogen recovery, purification, and catalyst management, remain crucial. According to mid-June 2025 news announcements, bp has indefinitely paused its blue hydrogen and carbon capture project at its Whiting Refinery in Indiana (US) due to economic competitiveness, jeopardising a $1 billion federal grant for the Midwest clean hydrogen ecosystem. Conversely, TotalEnergies is aggressively decarbonising its European refineries with low-carbon hydrogen, targeting 3 MM mt/y CO₂ emissions cut by 2030 and launching a 500K mt/y hydrogen tender. They are developing biohydro- gen units at La Mède and Grandpuits, and investing in elec- trolysers (for example, the OranjeWind offshore wind farm) to produce green hydrogen for Northern European refineries, including a 250 MW Zeeland joint venture by 2029. Refinery-petrochemical integration and crude-to- chemicals The petrochemical business is poised for significant growth, projected to reach $973.10 billion by 2030 (7.3% CAGR), driven by demand in packaging, automotive, and consumer goods, particularly in Asia-Pacific (China, India). Plastics, especially ethylene, remain key drivers. The industry is shifting to cost-effective natural gas liquid (NGL) feed - stocks, primarily in North America, as oil and gas majors diversify. Petrochemicals also support lower-carbon tech - nologies (for example, wind turbine blades) and a circular economy through recyclable materials. Meanwhile, the global petrochemical industry is under - going significant restructuring, marked by widespread plant closures, especially in Europe and parts of Asia. This trend stems from persistent oversupply, largely due to new Chinese production capacities outpacing global demand, leading to depressed profits, low operating rates, and reduced margins, a situation expected through 2025. Beyond oversupply, high energy costs disproportionately impact European producers, making older, less efficient plants uneconomical and prompting ‘deindustrialisation’ in the region. Geopolitical instability and strategic portfolio optimisation further intensify these pressures, with com - panies reviewing global assets and closing less profitable facilities. Recent examples include Dow Chemical plant shutdowns in Germany, the UK, US, and Argentina (2026-2027), as well as closures by Japanese companies (ENEOS, Idemitsu Kosan) and firms in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Australia. Mitsubishi Chemical also cancelled a North American plant due to oversupply. These shutdowns reflect an industry aggressively adapting to a challenging, evolv- ing market. Base oil, lube oil, and lubricants The global energy transition is significantly reshaping the base oil and lubricant markets, driven by changing demand, stricter regulations, and evolving technology. Base oil, 70-99% of a lubricant, is primarily petroleum-refined but
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PTQ Q4 2025
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