PTQ Q4 2025 Issue

REFINING GAS PROCESSING PETROCHEMICALS ptq Q4 2025

THE FUTURE OF REFINING CORROSION CONTROL

DUAL CATALYST SYSTEMS

HYDROPROCESSING CASES

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3 Refining industry shifting investments Rene Gonzalez 5 ptq&a 19 Advancing catalytic performance in hydrotreating: Part 2 Andrea Battiston Ketjen

31 High-throughput testing for hydrocracking catalyst benchmarking Giada Innocenti, Carmen Angelini, Ben Miller, Xavier Sanz, Cansu Mai, and Ioan-Teodor Trotus hte Gmbh 37 Future-proofing cooling systems in a changing climate Viswanth Ramba, Sebastian Fogel, and Rahul Patil Alfa Laval 45 Economic and environmental versatile technologies in refining Danny Verboekend Zeopore Technologies 51 The future of petroleum refining: transform now or later? Part 1 Diana Brown and Thomas Yeung Hydrocarbon Publishing Company 59 Identify corrosive regimes in hydrofluoric alkylation units: Part 1 Ezequiel Vicent OLI Systems 67 Maximise utilisation of high-activity hydrotreating catalysts Andrew Layton KBC (A Yokogawa Company) 75 Corrosion control in refinery distillation Shaofeng Lin Veolia Water Technologies 81 Corrosion in amine units using MEA solvents for deep CO₂ removal: Part 3 David B Engel, Scott Williams, and Cody Ridge Nexo Solutions 87 Reducing refinery SOx emissions footprint Ganank Srivastava Bryan Research & Engineering, LLC 93 Process cooling in hot climates Susheel Moudgil Dubai Natural Gas Company Limited 99 Central role of diagnostics in distillation energy transition: Part 1 Henry Z Kister Fluor Corp Norman P Lieberman Process Improvement Engineering 105 Technology In Action Fresh momentum for Paqell’s Thiopaq O&G: the biological SRU Paqell Accelerating ethylene oxide catalyst innovation through high-throughput testing Avantium

Cover The steam cracker in Port Arthur, Texas, transforms crude oil and natural gas into chemical building blocks for many consumer and industrial goods. Courtesy: BASF

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Make every molecule matter

At Shell Catalysts & Technologies, we understand how small, unseen chemical reactions can affect the health of our loved ones, neighbours, and the planet at large. That is what motivates us in our mission to Make Every Molecule Matter. Every member of our team is focused on the same goal – developing cleaner energy solutions that enable industries to tackle global climate challenges starting at the molecular level. Our experienced scientists and expert engineers collaborate with customers to create solutions tailored to your specific energy transition and performance challenges. And when they do, they use the knowledge we gained from Shell’s corporate heritage as the designer, owner and operator of complex industrial process plants around the world. Learn more at catalysts.shell.com/MEMM.

Editor Rene Gonzalez editor@petroleumtechnology.com tel: +1 713 449 5817 Managing Editor Rachel Storry rachel.storry@emap.com Editorial Assistant Lisa Harrison lisa.harrison@emap.com Graphics Peter Harper Business Development Director Paul Mason Paul.Mason@petroleumtechnology.com ptq PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY Vol 30 No 5 Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) 2025

Refining industry shifting investments

I t is widely accepted that traditional refining for gasoline production is in struc - tural decline in the US, Europe, and elsewhere. Some of the strategies refiners are pursuing to diversify away from gasoline and distillate production include biomass-based co-processing, petrochemical-grade naphtha, renewable diesel (RD), SAF, and olefins production. Refineries built for heavy crude (common in Canada, Mexico, Venezuela) are now adapting to rising volumes of domestic light shale oil, but this requires multi-year, multi-hundred-million-dollar retrofits. For example, Exxon spent approximately $2 billion in Beaumont, and Chevron spent $475 million in Pasadena on retro- fits. Refiners are hesitant to fund major conversions due to uncertain long-term oil demand and shifting politics, prompting cautious decisions on such investments. In the short term, many refineries, like those on the US Gulf Coast, have debottle - necked crude/vacuum units, added preflash capacity, upgraded desalters, installed condensate splitters, and tweaked hydrocrackers/FCCs and reformers to handle lighter, sweeter slates. Against this backdrop, US crude oil production is mainly light shale crude, while high-complexity facilities have been designed to process low API gravity crudes from across the world, such as Western Canadian Select (20° API, 3.5% S), Mexican Maya (21°API, 3.3-3.8% S), and Arab Heavy (27° API, 2.8-3.5% S), which ideally requires a different complexity and configuration vs shale crudes. More than 70% of US processing capacity is configured to run heavier grades, and shifting the setup to increase shale crude processing can be lengthy and costly. Instead of expanding fossil fuel processing, certain refiners are investing heav - ily in RD, SAF, hydrogen, and biorefineries/co-processing. Indeed, according to a recent Reuters report, Marathon and other refiners are shifting as much as 50% (or more) of their yearly Capex towards co-processing-related projects. Refiners competing in emerging markets, such as Asia, are adjusting opera - tions to produce more naphtha, propylene, and reformate. These serve as chemi- cal feedstocks towards increasing olefins conversion from FCC units. This also includes butylene production to provide high-octane additives and alkylation unit feedstock, as some markets, such as India, are seeing increased gasoline demand. Other FCC units, previously optimised for gasoline, are targeting more light olefins (propylene) by using catalysts and operating conditions designed for higher olefin yield, and extracting olefin-rich fractions as chemical feedstocks. Typical olefin out - put still caps at 10-15%, though tweaks can increase yields. PTQ ’s FCC study, The FCCU in Transition to 2030 , provides a detailed look at the FCC processing and operational developments to coincide with market dynamics. For example, Asia is set to account for much of the global growth in FCC capacity, boosting petrochemi- cal yields from refining assets, including crude oil-to-chemical refinery types. In pursuit of higher margins petrochemicals, some refineries are collocating steam crackers and polymerisation units with traditional refinery operations. For example, ExxonMobil’s Baytown (Texas) complex houses three steam crackers with an eth- ylene capacity of ~3.6 million tpa, in addition to downstream polymer units. Other growth drivers include feedstock for aromatics units (such as paraxylene). In summary, traditional refining capacity is in structural decline, driven by gasoline and distillate alternatives, stricter regulations, and ageing plants. Big retrofits for shale integration are underway, but selectively, where feedstock flexibility is critical. The bulk of future investment is in renewable fuels, chemicals, and hydrogen. By 2030 and beyond, the refining landscape will centre on lean, efficient, hybrid assets, linking fossil refining with sustainable energy platforms tied to petrochemicals. Rene Gonzalez

tel: +44 7841 699431 Business Development Luke Massingham Luke.Massingham@ petroleumtechnology.com Managing Director Richard Watts richard.watts@emap.com Circulation Fran Havard

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PTQ Q4 2025

Discover how to Transform your Operations Through Data and Connectivity

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Q What methodologies are scaling up to detect deviations in plant operations? A Philippe Mège, Digital Factory Services Manager, Philippe.mege@axensgroup.com, and Pierre-Yves Le-Goff, Global Market Manager, pierre-yves.le-goff@axensgroup. com, Axens Data quality is essential for reliable decision-making, devia- tion detection, and process optimisation. As highlighted by a recently published Axens white paper, robust data cleaning and normalisation are critical first steps. Machine learning models, such as random forests, can estimate missing vari- ables needed for accurate normalisation. Once normalised, statistical methods like Mahalanobis distance and Hampel filters effectively identify outliers, which can be visualised on original time series for easy interpretation. Monitoring moving averages and applying normality tests helps detect gradual drifts in process param- eters. Dimensionality reduction techniques like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveal changes in parameter correlations over time, while clustering methods such as KMeans, guided by the elbow method, extract meaningful patterns from time series data without requiring labelled inputs. The unsupervised nature of these techniques enables rapid deployment and actionable insights without extensive data labelling. Integrating these methods, available on Axens Connect digital platform, within automated control systems and combining them with domain expertise and AI enhances scalability, accuracy, and reduces false positives, supporting proactive plant operation management. Connect is a mark of Axens. Q What strategies can be optimised to prevent margin leakage in plant operations? A Melvin Berrios-Soto, Product Marketing Manager, Emerson’s Aspen Technology business, melvin.berrios- soto@aspentech.com Margin leakage in plant operations can result from a range of factors, including operational inefficiencies, suboptimal feedstock utilisation, and limited coordination between production units. To address these challenges and improve profitability, dynamic optimisation solutions such as Aspen’s proprietary GDOT can be strategically implemented on top of an advanced process control (APC) layer. APC solutions have traditionally been used to improve unit performance by operating closer to process constraints. These systems help maintain throughput and product qual- ity while managing energy consumption. However, APC applications often function independently, relying on delayed feedback from other units. Manual adjustments to APC limits based on this feedback can lead to misalignment, creating

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APC Crude unit 1

APC Crude unit 2

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a gap between planned and operations that contributes to margin leakage. To enhance coordination and reduce these inefficien - cies, dynamic optimisation technologies like GDOT can be introduced (see Figure 1 above). The technology facilitates real-time alignment across multiple process units by auto- matically generating optimal targets for APC systems. It uses reconciled plant data and economic drivers to ensure that control decisions reflect current operating conditions and market dynamics. This closed-loop approach supports more consistent performance and enables faster responses to changes in demand, feedstock quality, or equipment sta- tus. In practice, implementations of GDOT have shown mea- surable financial benefits, including margin improvements of $4-$10 million annually in middle distillate refining and $6-$10 per ton of ethylene in olefins production. Integrating GDOT with APC systems can help reduce operational silos and improve overall plant coordination. This combined strategy supports more efficient operations and may contribute to improved margin retention, particularly in environments characterised by variability or complexity. GDOT is a mark of Aspen. A Philippe Mège, Digital Factory Services Manager, Philippe.mege@axensgroup.com, Pierre-Yves Le-Goff, Global Market Manager, pierre-yves.le-goff@axensgroup. com, and Romain Roux, Vice-President, Decarbonisation & Consulting, Axens, romain.roux@axensgroup.com In today’s volatile refining landscape, margin preservation is not just a financial imperative; it is a strategic necessity. One of the most effective levers to prevent margin leakage is the early detection of performance deviations. By continu- ously monitoring unit performance and comparing it against high-fidelity models, Axens’ digital platform, Connect’In, enables refiners to detect subtle degradations, such as

PTQ Q4 2025

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Rethinking Old Problems

More with Less

Revamp projects are difficult. Limitations imposed by plot space, congested pipe racks, and outdated equipment, to name a few, present unique challenges. Solutions that rely on excessive margins or comfortable designs lead to overspend. Now more than ever, process designers must find solutions that do more with less. P roven M ethods There is growing awareness that better scope definition earlier in the engineering phase saves time, reduces overall engineering cost, and leads to more successful projects. There is no argument that work completed during Conceptual and Feasibility phases is critical to getting a project on the right path. Engineers at Process Consulting Services, Inc. have developed a proven approach that makes the most of this precious time. At site, PCS engineers coordinate rigorous test runs, much of it through direct field measurements. Data collected is invaluable and often leads to low hanging fruit or hidden gems. Some refinery equipment performs better than design, and for various reasons others perform worse. Good test run data allows seasoned engineers to quickly identify what equipment needs investment and what equipment can be exploited. This way, solutions are developed that direct capital expense in the right areas and overspending is avoided. In one example, pressure drop measurements of a long crude oil transfer pipe showed the line could be reused, saving millions of dollars. Contact us today to learn how PCS’ proven methods can help you do more with less in your next revamp.

Projections for global supply and demand of refined products vary greatly depending on the pace of technological progress and degree of government policy enforcement associated with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Without major advances in technology, it is hard to imagine a future without conventional fossil fuels over the next decade or two. Based on history, continued rationalization of refining assets is likely. Small, low-complexity refineries will struggle, while large, complex ones will thrive. Capacity creep through gradual improvement of refining units will continue to be a differentiating characteristic for remaining players. Focused revamps will play a critical role. Post-pandemic, inflation and a shortage of skilled construction labor have dramatically increased costs for refinery revamps. It is becoming increasingly difficult for many projects to meet corporate return on investment thresholds.

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catalyst deactivation or feedstock variability, before they escalate into significant losses. In one case, early interven - tion based on Connect’In insights helped avoid $4.3 million in losses over 90 days. Moreover, real-time optimisation tools integrated with APC and inferential models allow for dynamic adjustments that maximise yield and minimise energy consumption. Axens’ Horizon services have demonstrated that even top-quartile refineries can unlock additional margin through targeted, low-Capex interventions. A recent study for a 230,000 BPD refinery in Southeast Asia identified 20 actionable solutions, 13 of which were implemented, result - ing in a projected $27 million/year margin improvement. These included optimisation of gasoline blending, hydrogen network balancing, and process unit tuning. Revamping ageing assets is another strategic avenue to reduce margin leakage. Rather than building new units, Axens helps clients modernise existing infrastructure to improve energy efficiency, increase throughput, or shift prod - uct slates. For example, revamping an aromatics complex led to a 14% reduction in CO₂ emissions and improved Opex through lower energy consumption. Repurposing, mean - while, offers a transformative path, converting underutilised assets to produce higher-value or lower-carbon products such as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This approach not only preserves capital but also accelerates time-to-market. Connect’In is a mark of Axens. A Jaime Brito, Executive Director, Refining & Oil Products, Chemical Market Analytics, jaime.brito@chemicalmarketa - nalytics.com By far, one of the main sources of margin leakage is attrib - uted to a lack of coordination among different departments in any organisation, mainly strategic teams/market analysis/ trading and the refinery operations team. This might be more evident than ever in the current geopolitical and commercial environment that has elicited price volatility not only among crude benchmarks in all regions, but also for crack spreads. For instance, back in February 2025, the initial announce - ments about potential tariffs to Canada translated into soaring gasoline prices in the US Mid Continent, which had nothing to do with actual fundamentals, but with risk assess - ment and financial reactions impacting wholesale pricing. Among the actions that can be implemented to optimise margins across the supply chain, including refinery opera - tions, are creating lean decision-making and communication chains that facilitate knowledge sharing, such as changing crack spreads and other price differentials. Constant com - munication among teams and the use of accurate external market intelligence allows for identifying trends and helps validate internal assumptions and conclusions. A Kellie Hickey, Senior Implementation Engineer, Imubit, kellie.hickey@imubit.com Margin leakage is a persistent challenge to plant profitability. Process optimisation technologies offer powerful tools to meet this challenge, but their success depends on their level

Strategy parameters Prices, goals

Operating and safety limits

Planning & economics

Process control conguration

Process engineers

Operators

Process control targets APC targets and PID setpoints

Process control engineers

Process control and automation

of adoption into the plant’s operational culture. Sustained improvement requires not just the right tools, but the right people, processes, and support systems behind them. APC systems play a foundational role in preventing mar - gin leakage by reducing process variability and safely push - ing closer to operating constraints. Additional value can be realised by integrating APC with Closed Loop AI Optimisation (AIO), which continuously updates plant targets in response to real-time market conditions. When implemented effec - tively, AIO keeps the plant operating at or near its economic optimum. AIO solutions can also unify traditional APC and economic optimisation within a single application, streamlin - ing control and enhancing operational sustainability. Advanced control and optimisation systems alone do not guarantee results. These applications require ongoing main - tenance and monitoring to sustain performance and adapt to process changes. Long-term success depends on clear own - ership by a dedicated plant resource responsible for manag - ing and supporting these systems. While AIO applications can provide tools and support to help ease this burden, an on-site champion remains essential to ensure effective use and alignment across teams. Operator engagement is equally critical. Even the best applications can fail to deliver value if frontline users are not adequately trained or supported. Providing operators with appropriate training and access to a knowledgeable point of contact fosters understanding, builds confidence, and increases application uptime. Tools that enhance explain - ability can help build trust in model decisions across all stakeholders. Cross-functional coordination is another key enabler of success. Tight integration across all levels, from business planning to operations, ensures that optimisation systems receive timely and accurate inputs. Misalignment or delays between planning and execution can lead to suboptimal operation and margin loss. Organisations should establish workflows that minimise lag and implement processes to Figure 1 AIO models break down organisational silos by aligning teams around a single model view of plant reality

PTQ Q4 2025

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quickly detect and resolve discrepancies between planning models and AIO targets. Optimisation models also offer significant value beyond real-time control. Offline analysis can identify active con - straints and quantify the economic benefit of relaxing them, guiding maintenance priorities and informing capital invest- ment decisions. What-if simulations allow teams to explore the impact of process changes without affecting live produc- tion, enabling more proactive and informed decision-making. These tools also help identify new variables that may be valuable to bring into closed-loop, continuously expanding the system’s optimisation potential. When used strategically, these insights ensure that optimisation efforts remain closely aligned with evolving operational and economic conditions. Reducing margin leakage is as much an organisational challenge as it is a technical one (see Figure 1 on p7). By combining technical excellence with strong ownership, cross-functional alignment, and operator engagement, plants can fully realise the value of their optimisation sys- tems and ensure they continue to evolve and deliver value long after initial implementation. A Arvind Chaturvedi, Director Process Optimisation, Transcend Solutions, LLC, arvind.chaturvedi@trnsnd.com In modern refineries, strategies for margin optimisation are not just limited to process efficiency and market alignment, but also to rigorous contamination control. Contamination, whether from particulates, water, corrosion products, or chemical incompatibilities, has a profound and often under - estimated impact on energy consumption, equipment reli - ability, and unplanned downtime, which together cause more than half of the potential margin leakage experienced by refiners. Contaminants such as fouling agents (for example, iron sulphides, salts, and organic sludge) lead to heat exchanger fouling, compressor, turbine and fired heater inefficien - cies, hydrotreater bed plugging, and consequent increased hydrogen recycle compression. Contaminants can also cause direct damage to critical assets, such as pumps, compressors, valves, bearings, and seals. If left unchecked, this can further lead to catalyst poi - soning in FCC units, hydroprocessing, or reformer units. An accumulation of these issues leads to earlier than planned turnarounds, catalyst changeouts, and emergency repairs. A rigorous feedstock quality control system is the first step in preventing the ingress of external contaminants in the pro - cess. It often gets the desired attention from the operators by way of advanced crude assays, desalters, online moni - toring, and tighter acceptance specifications for opportunity crudes. The downstream processes are generally where the issues arise, through a combination of traditional practices, as follows: • Licensors focus on the key processes to a much greater extent than on the separation of critical solid and liquid con - taminants. As a result, most licensors leave separations out of their scope of critical supply. • Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) compa - nies rely on the vendor claims for efficiency and sealing. Once they have the vendor claims, the EPC firms make a choice

based on the lowest cost. In case study after case study, we have shown that there are many companies that provide poorly performing separators for solid and liquid removal. • End users typically have no leverage during the detailed design process once the contract is signed, and these kind of contaminant-related operating issues typically only rear their head after the performance warranty period. In the context of these practices, some of the strategies for preventing margin leakages can be summarised as follows: • Identify the high-risk separations in the process. For these areas, end-customer, EPC, and licensor should strongly con - sider working with those that have the technology expertise, along with the manufacturing capability to provide the nec- essary separation equipment. • Install high-efficiency coalescers and particulate separa - tors, designed to the appropriate size for current and future predicted fluid flows. • Monitoring heat exchanger performance closely and using predictive models could provide a possible indication of future fouling. • Conducting a detailed analysis of process fluids after any failure may help in identifying the root cause and lead to pre- vention at the source of contamination. These may include particle counts, elemental analysis, and FTIR. • Linking contamination sensors like filter dP heat exchanger fouling to predictive maintenance platforms may help trigger early warnings. • Establish baseline contamination surveys in critical opera- tions and regularly perform contamination surveys to moni- tor system health. In an environment where every dollar of margin counts, contamination control is not just a maintenance issue; it is a margin strategy. By integrating robust contamination pre- vention, detection, and mitigation practices, refineries can unlock significant gains in energy efficiency, uptime, and long-term reliability. Q What valuable side streams can be co-produced with SAF production technology? A Woody Shiflett, Ph.D., Blue Ridge Consulting LLC, blu- eridgeconsulting2020@outlook.com Optimally, one needs to define ‘valuable side streams’ for each current process. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) processes currently dominate the SAF scene, and side streams produced are well known (for example, renew - able diesel, naphtha, propane, and light ends). The main side stream is renewable diesel, which, depend - ing on local regulatory structure and markets, can be more or less valuable than SAF. Depending on unit design, cata - lyst system, and operating mode, the jet yield can vary from about 15% to about 55%, with resultant diesel yield about 75% and 25%, respectively, with renewable naphtha and light ends making up the balance (see Figure 1 on p10). In the US, renewable diesel produces more RIN credits than SAF by about 6%. However, the latest variant of tax credits under 45Z provides added credits for SAF. In the EU, the process is driven by mandates and emis - sion trading schemes. ReFuelEU Aviation legislation places

PTQ Q4 2025

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Q How can FCC-focused refiners adapt to changing mar - ket conditions in the middle of a four-year run? A Melvin Berrios-Soto, Product Marketing Manager, Emerson’s Aspen Technology business, melvin.berrios- soto@aspentech.com FCC-focused refiners encounter shifts in market conditions, including changes in product demand, feedstock availabil- ity, regulatory requirements, and broader economic factors. Adapting to these changes may require a combination of operational flexibility and the use of industrial AI technolo - gies to support more responsive decision-making. One approach is to improve process agility through dynamic production optimisation. Technologies such as GDOT can support refiners by enabling closed-loop adjust - ments to FCC operations on a minute-by-minute basis. While traditional control systems maintain performance at the unit level, GDOT facilitates broader coordination across the FCC and adjacent units. It aligns production targets with economic drivers while respecting process constraints. For example, GDOT can optimise the production of light cycle oil (LCO) for the diesel pool by determining ideal targets for riser temperatures, feed distribution, and LCO cut points in the fractionation towers. These adjustments are made while maintaining constraints such as preheating duties and feed sulphur levels. By leveraging existing APC models, inferential variables, planning models, and reconciled process informa- tion, GDOT identifies the optimal operating point as market or process conditions evolve, enhancing responsiveness and supporting profitability. FCC units often exhibit nonlinear process behaviour, which adds complexity to model development. For instance, a small change in reactor temperature may significantly impact product yields, depending on catalyst condition and feed quality. Inaccurate or overly simplified models can limit operational agility and reduce performance under changing conditions. To address this, GDOT offers pre-trained hybrid tem- plates specifically designed for FCC applications (see Figure 1 below). These templates combine first-principles knowl - edge with machine learning to capture nonlinear dynam- ics more accurately. They help accelerate deployment and maintain robust optimisation across a wide range of operat- ing conditions, supporting consistent performance even as market conditions shift. By adopting dynamic optimisation and robust modelling strategies, FCC-focused refiners can improve responsiveness to market shifts and maintain per- formance mid-run. This approach supports more informed decision-making and helps sustain profitability in changing conditions.

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the thumb on the scales to favour SAF. Add to that pending EU SAF subsidy schemes, and renewable diesel will likely be a secondary valuable side product. Production to maxi- mise SAF results in larger amounts of renewable propane and renewable naphtha, but their value pales in comparison to that of renewable diesel. It is conceivable that renewable propane may see a growth in value in the future. Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) technologies are commercially emerg- ing. On-purpose SAF ATJ production units are slated to produce some 75% SAF, 7% renewable diesel, and the remainder naphtha and light ends, as shown in Figure 1 above. However, the various stages in ATJ, alcohol produc- tion, conversion to olefins, and oligomerisation, offer valu - able side stream options for green chemical production if incorporated into a process site design. Both of the main alcohols of interest, ethanol and isobuta- nol, yield butenes, including isobutene. These olefins can be converted into butadiene, a component in SB rubbers, and tri- isobutenes, which can be used as premium solvents. Whether the economics for such green chemical building blocks ever manifests in an ATJ design for SAF is highly speculative at this point. Despite a long history of more than a century, the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process also emerges as a technology for SAF production via syngas produced from gasification of low carbon intensity forest, agricultural, and other residues. With an appropriate tandem catalyst system, the poor selectivity of the FT Anderson-Schulz-Flory product distribution can be tailored to SAF to yield about 50% jet and 25%+ diesel, with the remainder naphtha and light ends (20%+) arising from the required cracking of C 22 + hydrocarbons. Relaxing the crack- ing component can yield FT waxes, which can be hydroisom- erised to premium bio base oil lube stocks. The economics of such a scheme has yet to be demonstrated. Another valuable side product is bio-electricity generation, which capitalises upon the large exothermicity of the FT reaction, with promise showing for woody biomass feeds basis paper studies. Figure 1 Comparion of product slates across fuel con- verion pathways ( Source: International Council On Clean Transportation, 2019, Working Paper 2019-05 )

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Hybrid models

Machine learning Neutral networks, Data analytics

First principles Domain expertise in Aspen HYSYS®/ Aspen Plus®

Figure 1 FCC hybrid templates are ready for use in the Unified GDOT Builder flowsheet environment

PTQ Q4 2025

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Accelerate your journey to net zero

Emit less, capture more

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A Mark Schmalfeld, Global Marketing Manager, Refining Catalyst, BASF Corporation, mark.schmalfeld@basf.com In today’s dynamic refining landscape, FCC-focused refin- ers must continually adapt their operations to meet evolving market demands and changing economics. Various strate- gies can be employed: encompassing process changes, catalyst adjustments, and operational modifications that enhance resilience and profitability. One critical aspect is feedstock flexibility. By diversifying the feedstock slate, refiners can optimise their operations and improve profitability. Incorporating a range of crude oils or lighter feedstocks enables refiners to respond effectively to fluctuations in crude prices and availability. This flexibility allows for the maximisation of higher-margin products by selecting feeds that align with current market demands and economics. Additionally, blending different feedstocks can mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions and price volatility. Optimising operating conditions is another essential strat- egy. Fine-tuning parameters such as temperature, pres- sure, and residence time can significantly impact the yield and quality of products produced in the FCC unit. By closely monitoring and adjusting these conditions, refiners can enhance the conversion of feedstock into desired products, whether gasoline, diesel, or petrochemical feedstocks. This optimisation not only improves efficiency but also aligns pro- duction with market trends, enabling refiners to capitalise on higher-demand products. The integration of the FCC unit with other refining units, such as hydrotreaters, reformers and even petrochemical facilities, can create synergies that enhance overall opera- tional efficiency. This integration enables better manage- ment of product slates and maximises yields by ensuring that intermediate products are processed efficiently. Coordinating operations among these units can lead to improved energy utilisation and reduced emissions, allowing refiners to quickly adapt to changing market conditions. Choosing the right FCC catalyst and FCC additives is criti- cal for maximising profitability in FCC operations. Different catalysts can be engineered to enhance specific product yields, such as increasing gasoline, diesel, propylene or butylene production based on current market demands. Continually evaluating and selecting catalysts that align with market trends can improve a refiner’s competitive edge. Furthermore, advanced catalyst technologies can help reduce operational issues and extend catalyst life, leading to lower overall costs. Implementing a flexible operational strategy allows refin- ers to quickly adapt to changing market conditions. Rapid adjustments to process parameters enable a timely response to fluctuations in product demand or feedstock availability. This agility improves profitability and enhances overall refin- ery resilience, positioning it to navigate market uncertainties effectively. Investing in training and development for refinery per- sonnel is crucial for adapting to changing market condi- tions. Equipping operators with the latest knowledge and skills enhances decision-making and operational efficiency. Continuous training programmes focusing on emerging

technologies and best practices ensure that staff can effec- tively respond to market fluctuations, improving the refin- ery’s adaptability and performance. A Jaime Brito, Executive Director, Refining & Oil Products, Chemical Market Analytics, jaime.brito@chemicalmarketa- nalytics.com The answer can be as diverse as the location for every refin- ery. US Gulf Coast (USGC) refiners have the competitive advantage of being close to exporting facilities that can reach out to markets like the Caribbean, Central or South America, all of them with such optionality for different octane, aromat- ics, emissions, and distillation specifications, making exports feasible. In that sense, if a USGC refiner, mainly supplying domestic markets, has lost competitiveness versus other peers amid lower gasoline demand patterns, it can always focus on maximising exports to Latin America. Any moment in the year is a trade opportunity, as when summer season wanes in the northern hemisphere, traders in the southern hemisphere are seeking cargoes for their summer season, and vice versa. Refiners in other US markets would need to focus on specific arbitrage opportunities among the Mid Continent and the East Coast or the Rockies, as well as opportunities on US West Coast markets. A Boheng Ma, Strategic Marketing Manager. W. R. Grace & Co., boheng.ma@grace.com, Disha Sharma, Strategic Marketing Manager, W. R. Grace & Co., disha.sharma@ grace.com FCC units are widely regarded as one of the most flexible and resilient processes in a refinery, able to easily adapt to shifting feed slates and yield targets between turnarounds and revamps. The continuous addition and turnover of catalyst and additive in an FCC unit allows refiners to utilise catalyst and additive technologies as a key lever to adapt to changing market conditions in the middle of a run. Operating condition adjustments and the application of digital tools are other ways that refiners can remain nimble and respond to dynamic market conditions. Catalyst formulation adjustments can enhance FCC unit performance in response to varying feedstock properties, unit constraints, or yield objectives. They can provide benefits such as improved metals tolerance, enhanced bottoms upgrading, or optimised coke selectivity, among others. Additionally, key FCC product yields such as gasoline, butylene, and propylene can be effectively tuned through the strategic use of ZSM-5 additives. By adjusting the type and dosage rate of ZSM-5 additives, refiners can dynamically shift the yield profile to align with market conditions and economic objectives. These catalyst and additive modifications can be seamlessly imple- mented mid-run, without requiring unit downtime. To illustrate this adaptability, a unit operating in high pro- pylene mode with Grace’s OlefinsUltra MZ ZSM-5 additive can reduce its usage to shift selectivities toward gasoline as gasoline margins strengthen. Alternatively, if octane valua- tion or butylene becomes more valuable, refiners can switch to an additive that delivers a higher C4=/C3= ratio, increasing butylene production from the unit. Another scenario is when economic signals favour the

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maximisation of LCO from the FCC. A commonly employed strategy is to adjust operating conditions and reduce reactor temperature to preserve more LCO, coupled with a catalyst reformulation that offers better bottoms upgrading to avoid high slurry make at the low severity conditions. In this sce- nario, a refiner may also elect to use ZSM-5 additive to pre - serve overall volume swell and improve yield slate profitability. For refiners seeking to continually optimise FCC unit perfor - mance and maximise value, establishing a strong partnership with their catalyst supplier is essential. Various digitalisa- tion tools have been implemented to further enhance the operational agility of an FCC. These tools extend the unit’s inherent flexibility, enabling more responsive and precise decision-making. By supporting systematic evaluation and rapid implementation of optimised operating conditions and catalyst formulations, these solutions drive measurable per- formance gains, resulting in significant annual savings and improved margins. Beyond individual yield strategies, digital solutions play a pivotal role in enabling continuous optimisation. Seamless data exchange between FCC operators and catalyst suppliers allows for real-time monitoring and notification, empower - ing timely adjustments to catalyst formulations and process conditions. Simulation and optimisation tools further support this by evaluating alternative scenarios and catalyst options. These alternate scenarios enable refiners to proactively adjust operations to respond to market shifts such as declin- ing gasoline demand or rising petrochemical prices. These services also focus on capturing immediate value, helping to identify and act on optimisation opportunities quickly. In doing so, they support broader FCC adaptation strategies, ensuring refiners remain competitive throughout the run between turnarounds. OlefinsUltra is a mark of W. R. Grace & Co. A Edison Tan, Business Consulting Engineer, Imubit, edi- son.tan@imubit.com FCC-focused refiners are particularly vulnerable to rapid market changes due to the inherent flexibility and complexity of the FCC unit. Unlike hydrotreaters or distillation columns, FCC operations sit at the crossroads of feedstock variability, product value volatility, and unit non-linearity. As the eco- nomic heart of many complex refineries, the FCC is central to maximising refinery margins, especially in light ends and middle distillates. As such, they offer outsized margin oppor- tunities but also risk during volatile market cycles. In a four-year continuous run, refiners must expect shift - ing product spreads (for example, gasoline vs distillate), tightening environmental specifications, and feed avail - ability, all while contending with catalyst deactivation, coke constraints, and hardware reliability. Traditional planning strategies, driven by a monthly LP disconnect from live unit behaviour, will struggle to respond meaningfully. In an increasingly volatile oil environment, some refiners are already adapting by running their LP weekly, but limitations remain. Yield vectors are static and linear approximations; constraints are averaged or underrepresented. As a result, the gap between ‘LP intent’ and ‘unit execution’ remains wide,

From LP intent to execution reality: The disconnect

LP-generated plan

Actual unit behaviour

Inputs

Nonlinear outputs

Static yield vector

Constraints

Real constraints

Ignored constraints

Yield vectors

Margin loss

Planning- actual variance

Figure 1 Planning vs actual variances

creating persistent planning vs actual variances that erode margins and delay critical strategy shifts (see Figure 1 above). To stay agile, refiners must tightly couple market intel - ligence, planning tools, and unit execution. This means integrating daily price signals, feedstock availability, and downstream demand directly into decision-making at the pace of operations, not planning cycles. This is where refin - ers can lean on powerful advancements in AI technology to enable this transformation. One such AI technology is closed loop AIO, achieving min- ute-to-minute optimisation strategy execution of complex nonlinear processes through two key components: Dynamic Process Model and Reinforcement Learning (RL) Controller. The Dynamic Process Model is a high-fidelity, nonlinear simulation of the FCC built upon actual plant data and pro- cess knowledge. This ‘process engineering digital twin’ cap- tures the true behaviour of the unit, including non-linear yield shifts, riser severity impacts, volume gains and constraint interactions. The RL Controller agent is trained through hundreds of thousands of trial-and-error scenarios on the previ- ously mentioned simulator. In this offline environment, the RL learns to act as a controller and optimiser, adapting to changing prices, constraints, and feed compositions. These optimised targets are sent to key manipulated variables for FCC, such as heavy feed intake, riser outlet temperature, and MAB, flowing directly into the distributed control system (DCS) or APC. Unlike static optimisers, this dynamic closed- loop optimisation can update continuously within two to five minutes, enabling higher uptime and responsiveness to con- tinuously changing unit conditions. When applied across multiple units (such as the hydrotreater or coker), the approach also supports multi- unit optimisation. The RL layer built upon dynamic process models of multiple units accounts for interdependencies and constraints on adjacent units that conventional unit-level solutions often overlook. To equalise the dynamic closed-loop model with planning, engineers must derive accurate LP vectors, validate assump- tions, and provide feedback much faster, often within weeks instead of months. This is where accurate AI models can help. When deployed in closed loop, engineers can quickly extract recent and frequently executed gains as LP yield vec- tors for updates.

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Over time, this will foster a more collaborative and adap- tive organisation. Planning teams get real-time insights into unit capability. APC and operations teams move from reactive to proactive margin capture. Economics teams can simulate or assess pricing signals (such as rising distillate cracks or octane premiums) and know how the unit can fea- sibly respond. Just as APC has become commonplace in all refiners, such tools that enable the technical and commercial workflow will become a baseline for the future. A Eric Rutan, Regional FCC Technical Excellence Director, Ketjen, eric.rutan@ketjen.com FCC-focused refiners operating in the middle of a four-year run must remain agile to adapt to shifting market dynam- ics, particularly fluctuations in product values and changes in feedstock quality. One of the most effective levers avail- able is modifying the fresh catalyst formulation to realign yield selectivities with new economic drivers or operational constraints. When product values shift, such as increased demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) olefins, or gasoline, refiners can adjust the base catalyst formulation to favour desired product slates. In addition, choosing to add or cease the addition of ZSM-5-based additives, which enhance propyl- ene and butylene yields by promoting cracking of gasoline- range olefins, increases refinery flexibility, as they can ‘turn them on’ when LPG prices are high or when downstream petrochemical integration is a priority. Conversely, when refiners process more challenging opportunity crudes or resid feeds, the catalyst must be tai- lored to handle higher levels of contaminants and coke pre- cursors. These feeds often lead to increased coke formation, which can limit unit throughput and efficiency. To mitigate this, refiners can shift towards catalyst formulations with improved coke selectivity, typically achieved by optimising matrix composition and rare earth content, as well as the inclusion of new technologies to improve diffusion within the catalyst to optimise hydrogen transfer and reduce dry gas and coke yields. A critical strategy in handling metal-laden feeds, particu- larly those high in nickel, is the incorporation of nickel traps into the catalyst. These traps immobilise nickel on the cata- lyst surface, preventing it from catalysing dehydrogenation reactions that lead to excessive hydrogen and coke produc - tion. By effectively capturing nickel, refiners can reduce or even eliminate the need for costly antimony injection, which is traditionally used to passivate nickel’s activity. This not only lowers operating costs but also simplifies logistics and environmental compliance. In addition to base catalyst adjustments, refiners can deploy a suite of additives to fine-tune performance. For bottoms upgrading, additives with high matrix activity and metals tolerance can help convert heavy cycle oil and slurry into more valuable products. This is particularly useful when maximising distillate or minimising slurry production is eco - nomically advantageous. Changes in environmental regulations or environmental performance due to other factors, like feed changes, may necessitate the use of specialty additives. DeSOx additives,

which typically contain magnesium or calcium compounds, react with sulphur oxides in the regenerator flue gas to form stable sulphates, thereby reducing SOx emissions. Combustion promoters, often based on platinum group met- als, enhance carbon monoxide oxidation in the regenerator, improving combustion efficiency and reducing CO emissions. Ultimately, the ability to adapt catalyst strategy mid-cycle allows FCC refiners to remain competitive and compliant without requiring major hardware changes. By leveraging catalyst technology, through formulation changes, metal traps, and performance additives, refiners can respond effec - tively to evolving market conditions, feedstock variability, and environmental mandates, ensuring optimal profitability and operational resilience throughout the run. A Berthold Otzisk, Senior Product Manager, Kurita Europe GmbH, berthold.otzisk@kurita-water.com Modernisation of existing FCC plants to improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions, and comply with stricter envi - ronmental regulations is being driven forward worldwide. In addition to long-term improvement targets, FCC plant operators are always required to look for suitable measures to realise these targets more quickly. This can be integration into petrochemical processes if the necessary infrastructure is already in place. It is then also possible to maximise the production of petrochemical products in order to meet the increasing demand for plastics and chemicals. The additional processing of alternative raw materials, such as biomass, and the reduction of CO 2 emissions are measures that can be adapted to changing market conditions. Diesel-oriented FCC units can significantly increase the production of LCO or diesel in the short term with relatively little effort. Higher yields can be achieved by lowering the FCC main fractionator top temperature by 5-10°C in order to achieve a shift in the cut points to produce more LCO. After a few days, however, an inevitable increase in differential pres- sure would be observed. The increase in pressure is mainly caused by precipitating highly corrosive ammonium salts and the resulting corrosion debris from corrosion attack. The Kurita DMax Technology is a chemical treatment pro - gramme where special organic hydroxides are dosed into the top reflux to the FCC main fractionator. DMax stands for diesel maximisation. Depending on the selection of organic DMax hydroxides, temperature stabilities of up to 250°C are possible. The hydroxides bind the chlorides or sulphides to form liquid, very low corrosive DMax salts and thus prevent precipitation, which would inevitably lead to an increase in pressure. The differential pressure is kept at a stable level, and the DMax salts formed leave the main fractionator col - umn together with the vapour to be removed with the accu- mulator sour water. Using this technology, higher LCO yields of >20% are possible, and energy costs can also be signifi - cantly reduced by lowering the top temperature. A Emerson Fry, Principal Technical Service Engineer, Johnson Matthey, emerson.fry@matthey.com Due to the innate flexibility of the FCC unit, several tools allow it to adapt to new market conditions. Changing the FCC unit heat balance can immediately impact overall conversion and,

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