PTQ Q2 2026 Issue

• Transportation fuel effi - ciency and demand stability. The population East of Suez is flat, India is grow - ing, while China is in steep decline. Refining capacity between Suez and the Straits of Malacca has seen demo- graphic growth. Refining capacity is more about ‘con -

Feedstock

Specic conversion Versatile conversion

Product

RWGS CO hydrogenation Fischer-Tropsch

Hydrocracking Hydroisomerisation

Circular fuels and chemicals

Biomass CO

HDO MTH

Figure 3 The switch to circular feedstocks involves several feedstock-specific conversions

conditions, can be more reactive than fossil-based vacuum gas oils (VGOs).2 Both trends imply that a lower operating temperature may be maintained. The increased paraffinic nature of the average hydro - carbon in the circular refinery also implies that, especially for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, the need for dewaxing is pronounced. Again, the high purity of the feeds implies that they are suitable for high-selectivity dewaxing, that is, via hydro-isomerisation. Importantly, in both hydrocracking and hydroisomerisa - tion, the core conversion is executed by a zeolite function. The function of the zeolite’s active site can be optimised by maximising its access to the feed and product molecules.3 As a result, by either controlling (cracking) or minimising the degree of cracking (isomerisation), these premium mes - oporous zeolites yield higher enhanced selectivity to liquid products. Importantly, the benefits of premium accessible zeolites appear larger for noble-metal-based catalysts, as compared to base-metal catalysts. Note that the latter selectivity benefit comes at the expense of the formation of gas and light naphtha. Such light species are increasingly undesired, as they are no lon - ger easily discarded via flaring or utilised for their calorific value, adding directly to the refinery’s environmental foot - print.⁴ Accordingly, any technology that avoids their forma - tion is highly desirable. Hence, within the upcoming circular refinery, the ability to maximise the hydroprocessing performance of circular hydrocarbons poses a large opportunity, particularly when the hydroprocessing catalysts are based on premium and economically accessible zeolites. References 1 Dieter Leckel et al, Energy & Fuels, 2006, 20, pp. 2330-2336. 2 Sie, S.T., Senden, M.M.G., Van Wechem, H.M.H. (1991), Catalysis Today , 8(3), pp. 371-394. 3 Reference to Zeopore’s 2022 and 2023 PTQ Catalysis articles. 4 Verboekend, D, Economic and environmental versatile technolo - gies in refining PTQ, Q3 2025. Q What significant pivot points in the market will influ - ence refinery planning? A Mel Larson, Advisor, Becht, mlarson@becht.com Three major pivot points will significantly influence refinery planning in the coming years: • Shifts in global refining capacity. • The Mercosur-EU trade agreement and its energy implications.

trol’ than domestic or regional demand. By expanding in Middle East and India, it is about controlling one’s own destiny. In addition, it is a pushback against geopolitical initia - tives such as China’s One Belt One Road strategy, more commonly known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive global infrastructure and economic development strategy launched in 2013 by Xi Jinping. It aims to finance and build transportation, energy, and trade networks con - necting China with Asia, Europe, Africa, and beyond. These shifts define a difference in oil trade, which also has a domino effect on manufacturing. There are geopoliti - cal issues, such as the Ukraine war and a shadow fleet of tankers moving sanctioned oil, that impact trade flows. The cost and availability of energy in all forms impact invest - ment decisions and the politics of a region. Furthermore, refining capacity built after 1995 is at scale, ranging from 350,000 to 1 MM bpd. The scale of these plants is pushing smaller, less efficient facilities out of business. Global refining capacity increased from 1990 to the pres - ent; the difference is that the US and others closed capacity, while others expanded. The shift in China now far exceeds its domestic demand, and a greater collapse is in the future. One needs to be mindful that politics and control defined oil more than meeting a local demand. The landmark trade agreement between Mercosur, a regional economic bloc in South America, and the European Union represents a meaningful shift in global trade dynam - ics, with particular growth potential for Mercosur member countries. Brazil is a net importer of refined fuels. As agricultural production and exports expand under the agreement, associated energy demand, including trans - portation fuels, is expected to rise, increasing the need for either expanding refining capacity or continuing with refined product imports. The latter exposes Mercosur to the greater impact of global disruption and political shifts over time. Continued improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency are expected to maintain flat to slightly declining transporta - tion fuel demand in many mature markets. Importantly, this trend appears to be largely independent of electric vehicle adoption rates. Recent financial write-downs by major US oil compa - nies in electric vehicle-related investments underscore that consumer demand is not always in sync with the political wishes of a region. The use of fossil fuels is necessary and will remain so for the next three decades. The challenge moving forward is being defined by disciplined analysis, common sense, and integrated refinery planning. These

PTQ Q2 2026