ERTC 2025
From complexity to control: a new model for the digital refinery
Shane Fitzsimmons and Rhys James KBC (A YOKOGAWA company)
In an era of rapid change, European refiners face a critical inflection point. Geopolitical instability, volatile feedstock markets, tightening emissions targets, and now restless global trade dynamics all threaten the status quo. According to the US Energy Information Administration, global refining capacity was 103.5 million barrels per day in 2023, with an additional 2.6-4.9 million barrels per day expected to come online by 2028 (EIA, Outlook on Global Refining to 2028, p.6, paragraph 1) . For European refiners, many of whom are already oper- ating on slim margins, the question is no longer whether digital transformation is needed, but rather how fast, comprehen- sively, and intelligently it is adopted. From Reactive to Predictive: The Refining Sector’s Data Dilemma For decades, refiners have operated in a reactive environment, relying heavily on lagging indicators such as return on capi- tal, yield losses, and safety incidents to assess performance. Tools like linear pro- gramming (LP), advanced process control (APC), and real-time optimiser (RTO) are familiar, yet often underutilised, misaligned with real operations, or turned off when drift occurs. The outcome? Valuable tech- nologies are switched off at the first sign of divergence, eroding their intended benefit. At the same time, refiners are drowning in data but starving for insight. Data frag- mentation between engineering (design), maintenance (computerised maintenance management system [CMMS]), and oper- ations (distributed control system [DCS]) systems create significant friction. Of the 50,000 data points per minute gener- ated by today’s refineries, only 10% are effectively used. Meanwhile, up to 40% of skilled personnel’s time is consumed simply preparing data rather than deriving insight. It is an unsustainable model, especially as the workforce ages and recruitment pipe- lines struggle to deliver digitally fluent replacements. What If A Digital-Centric Future Could Fill These Gaps? This is not a hypothetical future; it is already happening. Picture self-calibrating simulation, LP, APC, and RTO models that adjust in near real-time; surveillance across the asset base that surfaces risks or degradation before they hurt throughput or safety; dashboards that predict where margin is being lost or where emissions are likely to spike. Furthermore, imagine teams no longer tied up in manual reporting, but spending their time interpreting predictive analytics, making high-value decisions, and anticipating change. KBC has deployed a fully integrated digi- tal twin that links first-principles modelling to LPs, RTOs, and APCs. It uses the same
Ag e ing assets/ Talent gaps Shrinking demand in Europe Tightening emissions targets
-20
Real-time optimisation Planning & scheduling Enhanced unit monitoring What-ifs
-15
Performance indicators & data quality parameters
+30
Global capacity growth
+4.9
Process twin
-20 -10 0 10 20
30
Real-time health scores
Actual
KBC Acuity Process Twin Pro
Relative impact (illustrative)
Recalibrated & returned digital twin
Figure 1 European refining pressures at a glance
Figure 2 KBC Acuity Process Twin Pro automates the workflows required for monitoring and maintaining digital twins
sions are made, how work is organised, and how people and machines collaborate. In the digital-centric future KBC envi- sions, AI does not replace human insight; it amplifies it. Surveillance systems do the heavy lifting of monitoring and analysis, while operators focus on interpretation, judgement, and action. Teams are struc- tured around value delivery, rather than traditional hierarchies. Incentives align with performance, not process, and perfor- mance management relies on what is likely to happen next, not just what happened last week. This new operating model is next-gen- eration remote operations and ‘minimum field staffing’ facilities, where AI-backed automation allows for consolidated control of multiple refineries from an Integrated Operating Center with field staffing deter- mined by investment, resource availability, and process safety needs. KBC will be rede- fining safety, efficiency, and profitability. Conclusion The challenges facing European refiners, such as margin volatility, emissions pres- sure, and a shrinking talent base, are real, but so are the opportunities. By moving from reactive to predictive operations, and from fragmented data to unified insight, refin- ers can turn complexity into a competitive advantage. The shift is not about removing people but empowering them with AI-driven tools that amplify judgement, improve safety, and accelerate decision-making. KBC is working alongside leading European refiners to make this future real. With deep process expertise and proven digital technologies, it helps oper- ators unlock margin, cut emissions, and build more resilient organisations. Transformation is no longer a choice – it is the path to survival and growth. This is Bringing Decarbonisation to Life ® . The future starts now, and it is digitally human.
DId you know? Across Europe, KBC is delivering measurable value through
25
25%
20
18%
15
12%
10
7%
5
AI-driven digital transformation
0
Figure 3 AI-driven results across European refineries
cess other than finance and IT. Regulation adds more layers, requiring integrated oversight of risk management, emergency response, stakeholder management (oper- ations, safety, finance, IT). The cost of fail- ure is high, not just financially but also in terms of the licence to operate. Partnering for Results: European Case Studies Across Europe, KBC is delivering measur- able value through AI-driven digital trans- formation. In one case, a leading refiner worked with KBC to recalibrate ageing APC and RTO systems using AI-based model integrity monitoring. The result? Reactivated control systems, improved plan-vs-actual performance, and margin uplift despite volatile market conditions. KBC delivered a 12% increase in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA). In another example, a refinery with fragmented data systems implemented KBC’s digital twin integration platform. In under six months, they unlocked predic- tive insights across energy usage, mainte- nance scheduling, and yield optimisation, simultaneously reducing emissions inten- sity and enabling more flexible commercial decisions. Towards a New Operating Philosophy Digital transformation is more than a tech- nological upgrade. It is a shift in how deci-
base modelling platform across all these technologies to reduce the need for highly specialised skillsets for each tool. Through KBC Acuity TM Process Twin Pro, our artifi- cial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ ML) solution updates model parameters based on real and inferred data, eliminating drift. This frees process engineers to focus on production optimisation and maximising margin capture.
European Refiners Under Pressure: The Stakes
In Europe, the future will continue to cen- tre around people. Removing all human intervention will require billions in invest- ment in data acquisition points and control technologies. One recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie found that more than 20% of global refining capacity is at risk of closure, with European and Chinese refineries nota- bly vulnerable, accounting for around 3.9 million barrels per day of capacity in dan- ger. The trade-off between Capex and Opex for ageing brownfield assets in Europe will rarely meet the necessary return on invest- ment hurdle rates. Equally, there is tight regulation defin- ing safe operations centring around risk management and mitigation for day-to-day operations as well as emergency response. Consequently, there are more stakeholders involved in the Management of Change pro-
Contact: Shane.Fitzsimmons@kbc.global
21
Powered by FlippingBook