SAF vs. Kerosene: Economic comparison Illustrative cost structure, price trajectory and ZCT waste-to-SAF development pathway
Indicative cost-stack comparison
Illustrative price trajectory and parity pathway
A
B
200
3.0
Jet kerosene (fossil-derived) SAF (market, various pathways) ZCT waste-to-SAF (target)
15 170 index
Feedstock cost Processing & H CapEx & overhead Carbon cost/credit
175
2.5
150
Kerosene baseline (84)
35
2.0
125
ZCT development target
Parity range (0.55–0.70)
100
1.5
18 10 6 84 index
85 index
65
5
75
20
1.0
50
48
0.5
55
50
25
12
0
0.0
Conventional jet kerosene
SAF (market today)
ZCT waste-to-SAF (target)
2022 2020
2024
2026 2028
2030
2032
2035
Year
Cost-driver waterfall: From SAF market cost to ZCT target
C
0 25 50 75 100 175 150 125 200
86
-58
Note: Illustrative indices for strategic comparison only; not audited costs or a commercial price forecast.
-22
-15
+10
85
84
85 index
Jet kerosene baseline
+ Premium (non-waste GTL)
– Waste feedstock (low/negative cost)
– Heat intregation services
– Cold-catalyst selectivity gain
+ CapEx amortisation
ZCT waste-to-SAF (target)
Figure 5 Indicative cost stack comparison: conventional kerosene, typical SAF today, and ZCT’s waste-to-SAF target. Values are illustrative, intended to show structural cost shift rather than audited figures
• Feedstock cost: Industrial waste gas and solid waste streams are low-cost or negative-cost inputs compared to purchased natural gas or crude, removing a major line item from the cost stack. • Process efficiency: Cold catalyst FT synthesis combined with plant-wide heat integration reduces the energy penalty historically associated with synthetic fuel production. • Selectivity and quality : Tuning the C 1 -C 16 product distribution towards the SAF-relevant carbon range reduces downstream upgrading costs and improves yield of on-specification fuel.
Cost and quality are treated as a single optimisation problem in ZCT’s process design, not two separate targets traded off against each other. A process that is cheap but produces an off-specification carbon distribution still fails the kerosene-parity test; the reactor and catalyst strategy is selected specifically to hold both criteria simultaneously (see Figure 5 ). From industrial waste to SAF: The five-year roadmap ZCT’s research programme treats solid and gas industrial waste as a combined resource
The five-year roadmap
Stage
Focus
Status
CCC pilot Scale-up
Flue gas capture and conversion validation at pilot scale Integration of CCC, clean H₂ generation, and FT synthesis
In progress (pilot plan active)
TRL 6-7
Process redesign
Shift from classical equipment to zero-carbon, heat-integrated design
Underway
Full-scale SAF
Waste-to-SAF production at commercial economics
5-year target
Table 1
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