Decarbonisation Technology November 2025 Issue

reinforces this view. Our report shows that an estimated 9-14 m tpa of clean hydrogen supply could realistically come online by 2030; however, only around 8 m tpa of demand currently shows a policy-supported, positive business case. The demand challenge If the hydrogen supply chain provides the foundation for progress, demand is what sets it in motion. Without secure offtake agreements, even well-funded projects can struggle to move forward. As of 2025, around 3.6 mtpa of binding offtake agreements have been secured, covering around 60% of committed capacity. Most of this demand (70%) remains anchored in existing industrial uses, with refining and ammonia accounting for the bulk. Ammonia alone represents about 43% of total binding offtake, making it the single largest demand segment at present. Regional patterns are emerging. China and Europe lead on renewable hydrogen offtake, with China sourcing all volumes domestically. The US and Canada dominate low-carbon offtake, which is also primarily domestic. While the majority of existing capacity still serves domestic markets, early signs of an international market are taking shape; already 45% of Europe’s offtake is imported, signalling the first flows of cross-border hydrogen and derivatives. Up to 8 mtpa of clean hydrogen demand carries a positive business case under existing or announced policy frameworks, notably the EU’s RED III quotas and clean power mandates across East Asia, and could materialise by 2030. Achieving that outcome will depend on how effectively these mechanisms are implemented and on whether infrastructure can expand quickly enough to connect supply with demand. Infrastructure as catalyst Demand is now the single most critical factor determining how quickly the ecosystem will scale, with infrastructure deployment the next most important. Infrastructure readiness is the make-or-break factor in regional hydrogen competitiveness. It underpins costs, investor confidence, and market formation. For hydrogen to move into profitable, scalable deployment, demand and infrastructure

must advance together, de-risked by policy certainty and anchored in industrial clusters, until economies of scale bring costs down. Advancements in both new and existing infrastructure have expanded the geographic range of offtake, allowing it to occur at greater distances from production sites than in the past. Prior to 2021, offtake was predominantly co-located with production. Today, while international offtake markets are still developing, domestic offtake benefits from improved logistical and distribution infrastructure. An additional 13 mtpa could be unlocked by 2030 with the scale-up of enabling infrastructure. Expansion of midstream infrastructure to enable low-carbon supply for existing use cases is critical to address the cost gap with higher- emission alternatives for new end uses. Framework for success Lighthouse case stories from the first wave of clean hydrogen projects – 12 of which are included in the Global Hydrogen Compass report – can teach us valuable lessons on what it takes to succeed in hydrogen today. In our report, we identified six enabling factors that distinguish projects moving toward execution from those that remain stalled. These include:  Strategic location selection : connection to pipelines, storage, or hubs.  Capex and technology optimisation : efficient design, phased build-out, and local resource fit.  Cost and schedule optimisation : disciplined delivery and smart contracting.  Offtake and commercial strategy : credible offtake and end-use partnerships.  Policy landscape navigation : clear compliance and incentives.  Value chain collaboration : experienced teams and proven technology. While successful projects may not have to excel across every single dimension, we noticed that the common denominator among successful projects was the combination of a majority of the above enabling factors. The next wave: what will shape hydrogen’s expansion A convergence of trends across sectors will determine how the next wave of clean hydrogen