to 85% of planned global low-carbon hydrogen production. However, the slow implementation of landmark regulations, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), has led to proportional delays in projects dependent on these support mechanisms. Regulatory clarity on timelines and implementation will be critical. Developers are moving forward, but the speed of progress will depend on how quickly demand-side mechanisms and infrastructure align. Meanwhile, Europe continues to set important precedents in regulation and infrastructure planning. From the Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) to the Hydrogen Bank and the European Hydrogen Backbone, the EU has built the most comprehensive regulatory and infrastructure framework in the world. However, it must ensure that this ambition translates into projects on the ground. Although the region accounts for nearly two-thirds of the expected 2030 global demand, it accounts for less than 20% of total committed investment today. This mismatch reflects the challenge of turning policy intent into projects on the ground and highlights the importance of clear, long-term demand signals to de-risk private investment. The message is clear: ambition sets direction, but certainty unlocks delivery. The supply foundation Hydrogen supply is already shifting from concept to capacity. As of 2025, the global project pipeline includes about 6 million tons per year (mtpa) of committed clean hydrogen capacity, of which 1 mtpa is already operational – a milestone largely driven by the rapid scale- up of electrolysis in China. This projected supply range reflects the potential of the current project pipeline through 2030. However, the actual volumes that materialise will depend on how much capacity secures firm, often policy-supported, offtake agreements. Without clear demand signals, production assets risk remaining underused or becoming stranded. Across conversations with CEOs, a consistent note of optimism emerged: once market demand strengthens, the existing supply pipeline will be ready to rise to the challenge. Yet, many emphasised that supply alone will not be enough to spark wider adoption. Our analysis
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more credible execution. The hydrogen industry is entering its buildout phase, more disciplined and grounded in realism. China’s acceleration Nowhere is that momentum clearer than in China, a region that is deploying a hydrogen playbook reminiscent of its industrial strategies for solar, wind, and batteries, leading to rapid deployment of electrolytic hydrogen capacity. The country leads the world in total committed investments ($33 billion), boasts half of the global renewable hydrogen capacity, and leads in hydrogen vehicle deployment, with thousands of heavy-duty trucks and buses already on the road. Operational electrolysis capacity has grown sixfold since 2022, outpacing every other market. Most projects are financed, built, and consumed domestically, a self-reinforcing loop that ensures resilience and speed. When surveyed, 97% of CEOs agreed that China will remain one of the leading regions for hydrogen deployment, and nearly a third believe it could maintain its current leadership position in the years ahead. China’s model – build first, learn fast, scale relentlessly – carries lessons for others. It demonstrates that policy ambition, industrial coordination, and infrastructure readiness can combine to accelerate progress even in uncertain global conditions. North America and Europe’s diverging paths North America offers a different story. With $23 billion in committed investments, it is now the world’s second-largest hydrogen market, home Figure 1 Global cumulative committed (FID+) investment in clean hydrogen projects by 2030, $ billion. Source: Global Hydrogen Compass report (Hydrogen Council, 2025)
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