earth export quotas, could send shockwaves through global markets. Environmental and social risks compound the challenge. Mining often consumes vast amounts of water and energy and generates waste streams such as tailings, which can devastate ecosystems if poorly managed (ICMM, 2022 ). Artisanal and small-scale mining, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been linked to unsafe labour conditions, child labour, and severe human rights abuses (Amnesty International, 2016) . These realities raise ethical concerns and represent material risks for companies sourcing minerals, as exposure to human rights controversies can damage reputations, invite regulatory scrutiny, and threaten investor confidence. Opacity in ownership structures and revenue flows further increases vulnerability. In many resource-rich countries, extractive revenues are managed with limited public oversight, creating fertile ground for corruption and elite capture (Transparency International, 2022) . Market volatility is another systemic risk. Concentrated supply means that any disruption – a flood in a lithium brine field, a coup in a cobalt-producing province, or a sudden export control – can cause prices to spike. Between 2021 and 2022, lithium carbonate prices rose more than 400% due to tight supply and surging demand from electric vehicle manufacturers (IEA, 2023) . The convergence of these risks – geological, geopolitical, environmental, social, and market- based – means that mineral supply chains cannot be treated as ordinary commodities. They are strategic assets with national security dimensions, human rights implications, and climate-critical roles. Left unmanaged, supply risks could delay technology deployment, inflate costs, and erode public trust in the energy transition. Recognising and addressing these vulnerabilities is therefore a prerequisite for any credible decarbonisation strategy. Governance frameworks If the risks are substantial, so too are the tools available to manage them. Global initiatives have emerged over the past two decades to bring transparency, accountability, and responsibility to extractive industries. Two stand out as particularly relevant to critical minerals:
100
+904%
Li Lithium
904
1,000
+385%
C Graphite
3,849
170
+268%
Co Cobalt
455
2,700
+141%
Ni Nickel
3,804
Annual production in 2021 (thousand tonnes)
Projected annual demand by renewable energy technologies in 2040 (thousand tonnes)
Supply chain risks The energy transition is accelerating demand for a wide range of minerals, with particularly steep growth for a core group, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements, at a pace that supply systems are struggling to match. Achieving net zero by 2050 could require six times more mineral inputs for clean energy technologies in 2040 compared with 2020 levels (IEA, 2023) . Lithium demand alone is projected to grow more than fortyfold by mid-century, while cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are all on double- or triple-digit growth curves (World Bank, 2020) . These trajectories clash with the reality that new mines can take more than a decade to move from discovery to production, creating bottlenecks in upstream supply. Critical minerals are not evenly distributed; their production and refining are concentrated in a handful of countries. China, for instance, controls 60-70% of global rare earths refining and dominates lithium and cobalt processing (IEA, 2023) . The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt, while Indonesia accounts for nearly half of global nickel ore output (USGS, 2023) . Such concentration exposes supply chains to geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and domestic instability in producer countries. A single government decision, such as an export ban on unprocessed nickel ore or tighter rare Figure 1 Projected growth in demand from energy technologies by 2040 for major transition minerals
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