Decarbonisation Technology November 2025 Issue

TRL 1: Basic principles observed TRL 2: Technology concept formulated TRL 3: Proof of concept validation TRL 4: Standalone prototyping implementation and tested TRL 5: Technology validated in relevant environment TRL 6: Core technology proven in a system at least at pilot scale TRL 7: Core technologies proven in a demonstration- scale plant under campaign operations TRL 8: System proven end- to-end in a commercial- scale plant TRL 9: Full end-to-end molecule production demonstrated at commercial-relevant scale

Brick-wall

CRL 1: Basic

CRL 2: Primary market factors measured

CRL 4: Value proposition and commer- cialisation strategy validated

CRL 5: Alignment with market players validated

CRL 6: Commercial partners secured, with a clear line of sight to project funding

CRL 7: First commercial project

CRL 8: First commercial project delivered using partial non- recourse nancing

CRL 9: Established as a full infrastructure asset class

CRL 3: Potential markets and competitiveness is understood

commercial opportunity observed

delivered using equity funding

Speculative opportunity

Risk-managed opportunity

Bankable opportunity

Figure 3 TRL-CRL pathway adapted for the advanced gasification sector ( author’s adaptation based on ARENA, 2014 ).

yet capable of producing clean, tar-free syngas at consistent quality. This misalignment created scale-up failures, reputational damage, and the perception that advanced gasification as a whole was ‘not bankable’. By reframing advanced waste gasification through the TRL-CRL lens, the critical inflection point becomes clear. This is the ability to demonstrate tar-free, high-efficiency hydrogen- rich syngas cost-effectively at a commercially relevant scale. That is the true marker of transition from speculative to risk-managed opportunity. This reframing is important because it anchors the definition of ‘advanced’ gasification in tangible technical and commercial outcomes, not merely aspirational branding. Technology providers and/or developers that recognise and manage this synchronisation are those best placed to cross the valley of death and deliver bankable projects. Why advanced waste gasification has struggled The history of waste gasification is littered with stalled projects. Many failed due to fundamental process challenges – persistent tar formation, unstable syngas quality, and the inherent difficulty of handling heterogeneous waste feedstocks

at scale. Others collapsed because they ran out of funding before these technical issues could be resolved. There was often genuine promise, but progress was cut short in a sector that is notoriously Capex-intensive and high-risk. Even when technical hurdles were largely addressed at pilot scale, projects often faltered during scale-up and delivery, where the complexity of integration and execution proved overwhelming. It is in addressing these process challenges that the definition of advanced waste gasification becomes important. Advanced systems are those capable of producing a clean, tar-free, hydrogen-rich syngas while handling heterogeneous and variable (throughout days, months, seasons) waste streams consistently, and in doing so at a scale that integrates with downstream synthesis. Without this level of robustness, technologies risk repeating the cycle of over-promise and under-delivery. The lesson is clear: in advanced waste gasification, sustainable success requires TRL and CRL to move forward in lockstep. Technology providers and/or developers who over-invest in commercial promises before technical proof inevitably find themselves on the ‘not an ideal path’, straying from the ‘well- paced path’.