Decarbonisation Technology November 2025 Issue

Technology Readiness Level < > Commercial Readiness Level map

TRL 1: Basic principles observed TRL 2: Technology concept formulated TRL 3: Proof of concept validation TRL 4: Standalone prototyping implementation and tested TRL 5: Technology validated in relevant environment TRL 6: Prototyping demonstrated in a relevant end-to-end environment TRL 7: System prototyping demonstrated in an operational environment TRL 8: Actual sytem demonstrated in an operational environment TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful operations

High

Golden Rule CRL≥TRL

Well - paced path

Not an ideal path

Low

CRL 1: Basic

CRL 2: Primary market factors measured

CRL 4: Value proposition and commer- cialisation strategy validated

CRL 5: Alignment with market players validated

CRL 6: Regulatory

CRL 7: Financial model is validated, trials are done

CRL 8: Customers

CRL 9: Product is launched, revenue generated

CRL 3: Potential markets and competitiveness is understood

commercial opportunity observed

requirements are validated, partnerships formed

are signed up, scale-up path is validated

Speculative opportunity

Risk-managed opportunity

Bankable opportunity

Figure 1 Technology Readiness Level <> Commercial Readiness Level Map. Source: Adapted from ARENA (Australian Renewable Energy Agency), Commercial Readiness Index for Renewable Energy Sectors (ARENA, 2014)

learn from the past. Robust technical validation (TRL) is only half the story. Equally important is proving bankability, ‘investability’, and policy alignment (CRL). TRL and CRL: a dual journey TRLs map a pathway from basic research (TRL 1-3) through demonstration (TRL 5-7) to full commercial deployment (TRL 8-9). CRLs measure the maturity of business models, revenue streams, market acceptance, and policy/regulatory support ( ARENA, 2014 ). A project can be technically advanced but commercially unviable, or commercially attractive but technologically immature. The challenge – and opportunity – lies in synchronising the two. Figure 1 illustrates this dual approach. The ‘golden rule’ is that CRL should at least match TRL, ideally advancing just ahead to pave the way for market adoption while technical development catches up. However, when CRL races too far ahead, projects risk becoming technically impressive on paper and overcommitting commercially before the technology is proven, creating misalignment and a loss of confidence.

This framework identifies three broad phases of opportunity, as shown in Figure 2 . TRL-CRL in the context of advanced gasification The TRL-CRL framework is not just theoretical. When applied specifically to advanced gasification, it highlights why so many projects have faltered and how to avoid repeating those mistakes. In Figure 3 , the ‘brick-wall’ represents the point where technology providers and/or developers historically pushed too far commercially without resolving the technology fundamentals. Early projects raced to secure offtake agreements and investment, but the underlying systems were not

(TRLs 1 - 3 / CRLs 1 - 3): Proof-of-concept, with limited investor appetite. (TRLs 4 - 6 / CRLs - 6): Demonstrations validated technically and commercially, partnerships formed. (TRLs 7 - 9 / CRLs 7 - 9): Financial models validated, customers signed, projects de-risked (technically and commercially) for investment.

Speculative

Risk-managed

Bankable

Figure 2 Three broad phases of opportunity in the framework