Decarbonisation Technology November 2025 Issue

Making FOAK energy projects bankable in an uncertain market FOAK projects will always carry complexity; however, with the right frameworks, this can be transformed into clarity, thereby fostering trust among investors

Jacqui Allen Wood

The innovation imperative and the investment gap

and national security concerns are reshaping the energy project landscape. Techno-nationalism – the use of industrial policy, export controls, and domestic mandates to secure geopolitical and economic advantage – is becoming a defining force. Decarbonisation, once viewed primarily as an environmental or economic issue, is now framed as strategic competition. Many governments are reshoring supply chains, restricting exports, and directing incentives toward domestic production of critical technologies. This shift adds new layers of ambiguity to global markets. Leaders must now embed geopolitical awareness, supply chain foresight, and policy adaptability into their core strategies. Understanding how techno-nationalism intersects with decarbonisation is essential for managing risk, ensuring competitiveness, and securing long-term project viability. What is bankability? Bankability is the cumulative signal of readiness a project sends to investors, lenders, and

As industries targeted by climate policy, such as aviation, accelerate decarbonisation, first-of-a- kind (FOAK) projects are becoming increasingly critical. FOAK initiatives integrate emerging fuels, novel energy systems, and enabling technologies in unprecedented configurations. They aim to meet climate targets, advance clean industrial growth, and close the gap between innovation and deployment. Despite their strategic value, FOAK projects face persistent funding barriers. The absence of proven benchmarks, permitting clarity and mature supply chains, creates investor hesitation, compounded by uncertainty around policy alignment, integration complexity, feedstock logistics, and geopolitical volatility. Traditional frameworks for risk allocation and financial readiness are proving inadequate, especially as capital markets become more influenced by national industrial strategies. Hesitancy stems from unfamiliarity with technical configurations

and commercial structures. These

Tax credits, grants, permitting, and regulatory signals

Incentive & policy framework

unknowns raise doubts about whether projects can deliver at scale. As a result, many FOAK ventures stall, delayed by uncertainty around market offtake, technology readiness, and policy incentives. At the same time, climate imperatives

Ability to generate predictable revenue under current/future market conditions

Commercial viability

Technology maturity, scalability, EPC structure and construction/performance assurance

Technical & execution readiness

Proven ability to deliver, nance and de-risk complex projects

Developer experience & capital resilience

Bankable project

Figure 1 Key themes of project bankability

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