Decarbonisation Technology November 2025 Issue

hydrogen corridors. However, infrastructure investment depends on one essential condition: demand clarity. Binding targets, quotas, and mandates that underpin offtake contracts are indispensable to de-risk capital and attract financing. Without them, even regions with abundant, low-cost renewables may struggle to convert potential into investment. Ultimately, scale will come from a combination of market-enabling, technology-neutral policies, efficient project design, and a robust base of trade and transport infrastructure. Together, these elements can carry hydrogen from its current wave of demonstration to the sustained tide of commercial deployment. The road ahead The next two to five years will determine whether hydrogen’s first wave becomes a sustained tide. The foundations are strong: supply capacity is growing, projects are consolidating, and policies are advancing. But the balance between supply and demand remains delicate. To stay on course, the sector needs clarity on policy frameworks, timelines, and demand formation. Clear, stable, practical conditions enable capital to flow, infrastructure to form, and technology to scale. Without them, even regions rich in natural resources risk being left behind. Global Hydrogen Compass shows a sector that has moved beyond first ambitions into a more pragmatic phase focused on delivery. If the early 2020s were about announcements, the late 2020s are about execution. The pioneers of this first wave – those securing offtake, breaking ground, and building infrastructure – are defining how fast the second wave can rise. To succeed, the hydrogen industry must stay the course: anchor demand through credible, long-term frameworks, invest in connective infrastructure that reduces cost and risk, and adopt pragmatic, pathway-agnostic strategies to scale. VIEW REFERENCES

deployment takes shape. Growth in end-use markets such as mobility, fertiliser, and maritime, coupled with the build-out of connective infrastructure and the implementation of new policies, will define the pace and direction of progress. In mobility, the first hydrogen ecosystems are now materialising with fleets, refuelling stations, and supply contracts aligned in early regional hubs. Yet large-scale rollout remains challenging: vehicles, refuelling infrastructure, and hydrogen supply must all develop in parallel, with utilisation rates high enough to keep costs competitive. In fertiliser and industrial feedstocks, demand for clean ammonia is advancing on the back of new policies. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and Cross Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are tightening the cost of carbon for both domestic and imported “ To stay on course, the sector needs clarity on policy frameworks, timelines, and demand formation. Clear, stable, practical conditions enable capital to flow, infrastructure to form, and technology to scale ” ammonia, strengthening the case for low- emissions options. In Japan and Korea, power sector auctions and contracts-for-difference are boosting co-firing with clean ammonia in coal plants, while governments in the US, China, and India are promoting production through distinct incentive frameworks. The maritime sector is emerging as an important frontier for hydrogen-derived fuels. The upcoming IMO decision on the Net-Zero Framework this month could become the defining inflection point for global shipping. It will set the regulatory basis for the industry that will shape demand for hydrogen-derived fuels, vessel technologies, and port infrastructure over the coming decades. Delivering this expansion requires midstream solutions that connect production with users. For long-distance transport, industry players are assessing opportunities to repurpose existing gas pipelines and build new dedicated

Özlem Duyan research@hydrogencouncil.com