Decarbonisation Technology February 2026 Issue

creates a new rung. Under a DBCOM-adjusted carbon hierarchy, fuels are ranked not only by fuel-cycle emissions, but by their ability to decarbonise high-carbon industrial utilities within existing assets. This reframing explains why refinery-integrated 2G ethanol approaches ultra-low-carbon performance levels using commercially mature technology and existing infrastructure (see Figure 2 ). Global outlook to 2040: cross-regional deployment potential The relevance of the DBCOM framework extends well beyond individual projects or national biofuel programmes, as global energy outlooks indicate that liquid fuels and refinery systems will continue to play a material role in the energy transition through 2040 ( IEA, 2023 ). As refining and petrochemical complexes worldwide face tightening carbon constraints, the central challenge is identifying pathways that can deliver material emissions reductions at scale, within existing assets, and on commercially viable timelines. Refinery-integrated 2G ethanol meets this challenge by leveraging three globally prevalent features: continuous high steam demand, concentrated industrial emissions, and access, direct or indirect, to biomass resources. Across regions, DBCOM reveals a consistent pattern. Asia offers the largest absolute potential, driven by abundant biomass and expanding refinery capacity. Europe derives its advantage primarily from economics, where high carbon prices amplify the value of utility displacement. North America benefits from policy alignment, translating dual-boundary reductions directly into revenue. The Middle East, despite limited biomass, achieves outsized impact through large refinery scale and high steam intensity. Latin America and Africa combine decarbonisation with industrial development through high-quality biomass streams. Scenario analysis indicates global CO₂ reductions of 20-25 Mt/yr under conservative deployment, 40-60 Mt/yr under moderate adoption, and up to 80-100 Mt/yr under accelerated integration by 2040 (see Table 2 ). Even modest deployment therefore

Avoided renery power emissions

Avoided renery steam emissions

Standalone 2G ethanol (fuel- cycle Cl)

DBCOM- adjusted 2G ethanol Cl

Carbon accounting stages

CO₂e/MJ, consistent with reported regulatory ranges. When lignin-derived steam displaces natural gas steam within a refinery, avoided emissions typically correspond to ~4 g CO₂e/MJ on an ethanol energy basis. Surplus electricity export can further avoid ~2 g CO₂e/MJ, depending on regional grid intensity. Applying the simplified formulation (see boxout opposite): Carbon Intensity (adjusted) = 22 − 4 − 2 = 16 g CO₂e/MJ. This illustrates the operational meaning of the dual advantage: emissions are reduced once through low-carbon fuel production and a second time through industrial utility displacement. Implications for fuel hierarchies Once this dual function is recognised, 2G ethanol no longer fits within traditional carbon ladders. It Figure 2 DBCOM illustrative carbon intensity reduction

Region

Refinery

Biomass unlock (Mt/yr)

DBCOM CO₂ reduction

throughput (MMTPA)

(Mt/yr)

India USA

250 250 140 330

200 180

12-18 10-15

Europe

80 50 70 90 70

8-12 6-10

Middle East

ASEAN

60 80 60

3-5 4-6

Latin America

Africa 3-5 Note: Values are indicative scenario estimates based on regional refinery scale, biomass availability ranges reported in public literature(e.g., IEA Bioenergy, FAO), and system level carbon displacement under DBCOM framework. They illustrate relative deployment potential by region rather than project specific outcomes Table 2 Indicative DBCOM deployment potential by 2040