Estimated global production of low-GHG fuels across all sectors
50
50
50
50
50
40
40
40
40
40
Diesel
Methane
Methanol
Ammonia
Hydrogen
30
30
30
30
30
20
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
10
0
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 0
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 0
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 0
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 0
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Total estimated production of low-GHG fuels
140
High
Low Total production in 2024
120
100
High
80
60
Low
40
Demand from IMO NZF
20
2024
0
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Figure 3 Estimated global production of low-GHG fuels across all sectors
of custody models tracing and verifying the sustainability of low-GHG fuel supply can boost availability and reduce investment needs for storage and bunkering infrastructure. Flexible models such as mass balance and book and claim allow sustainability tracking without physically separating fuel types, thereby cutting energy losses and infrastructure costs. For LNG and bio-LNG/biomethane, applying mass balancing to interconnected infrastructure would allow the use of fossil LNG terminals and natural gas pipelines instead of building separate infrastructure for bio-LNG/biomethane. Using a fully flexible book-and-claim chain of custody model could save up to 0.55 Mtoe of energy annually (if all biomethane produced in the EU were used as ship fuel) by avoiding energy losses from separate transport and liquefaction infrastructure. Meanwhile, existing industrial terminals for methanol and ammonia offer a foundation for maritime distribution, easing last-mile delivery challenges. Robust governance and systems such as the EU’s Union Database for Biofuels ensure transparency and compliance, further supporting market growth and investment in renewable fuel production.
Ports and fuel suppliers are also making moves to build the infrastructure needed to support these new fuels, but progress is uneven. Bunkering infrastructure for fuels like LNG – including bunkering vessels – has expanded significantly over the past two years, but fuels like methanol and ammonia are not expanding at the same pace. Some major ports are emerging as early leaders, but others are still in the planning stages. Price is another key issue. With the supply of low-GHG fuels still very low, they remain significantly more expensive than traditional bunker fuels. While some cargo owners with environmental, social, and governance, (ESG) requirements, who are close to the end consumer, are willing to pay a premium for green shipping, this is not the case across the board and is currently mostly limited to the container and car carrier trades. As a result, many shipowners are finding it difficult to commit to a single fuel pathway or technology. Flexible chain of custody models Some other mechanisms can help to smooth the pathway for low-GHG fuels. As shown in the Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, chain
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