credit criteria ( US EIA, 2024-2025a ). The OBBBA revisions further complicated the landscape. Compressed qualification timelines forced developers to accelerate engineering and procurement schedules, often without clarity on final tax credit guidance. The narrower domestic content rules
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Figure 3 US added electricity-generating capacity. Source: (US EIA, 2025a)
added further pressure. Developers became more selective, focusing on projects with credible offtake, proximity to infrastructure, and clear compliance pathways. Blue hydrogen gained momentum in the Gulf Coast, where existing pipelines, CO2 storage resources, refineries, and petrochemical complexes created natural clusters for early deployment. Green hydrogen, on the other hand, contracted in many regions due to higher capital costs, slower renewable interconnection, and uncertainty around hourly matching requirements (BloombergNEF, 2025b) . One of the clearest signals of the sector’s recalibration came in November 2025, when ExxonMobil paused its Baytown blue hydrogen project ( Dang, 2025 ) ( Eclipse Energy, 2025 ). The company publicly attributed the decision to weak customer demand and difficulty securing long-term offtake commitments under prevailing market and policy conditions. The pause underscored the commercial challenges faced by large-scale blue hydrogen facilities, even in regions with strong industrial fundamentals. Alongside these shifts, subsurface hydrogen pathways began to gain attention as potential complements to conventional production. Companies such as Eclipse Energy advanced technology that stimulates hydrogen generation within depleted oil reservoirs by leveraging natural geochemical processes and existing well infrastructure (Eclipse Energy, 2025) (see Figure 4 ). This approach avoids the use of surface electrolysis and reduces the amount of new drilling required. It also positions engineered geologic or natural hydrogen as a potentially low- cost and low-carbon pathway that repurposes legacy assets while minimising surface footprint.
placed pressure on a manufacturing base that remains globally dependent, especially for nacelles, bearings, inverters, and certain power electronics. Transmission remained a structural bottleneck. While Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 1920 created a framework for long-term regional planning and more consistent cost allocation, it did not materially accelerate near-term delivery of transmission projects already stuck in permitting reviews. Many renewable projects continued to face multi-year delays driven by environmental assessments, local opposition, and interconnection queue backlogs ( FERC, 2024 ). Yet meaningful capacity in renewables was still added. Corporate buyers maintained a strong interest in time-matched procurement solutions. Storage costs continued to decline, enabling a growing number of solar-plus-storage configurations. Meanwhile, long-duration storage technologies advanced through demonstration projects ( US DOE, 2025b ). Renewable growth persisted, but at a pace more aligned with practical constraints than with the expansive expectations of early IRA optimism. A more grounded hydrogen outlook Hydrogen entered 2025 in a recalibrated state. The years immediately following the IRA had seen bold targets, large-scale announcements, and high expectations for rapid deployment. But prolonged uncertainty around 45V guidance, particularly regarding temporal matching, deliverability, and additionality requirements, slowed momentum across much of the pipeline ( BloombergNEF, 2025b ). OBBBA’s shortened qualification windows
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