Decarbonisation Technology February 2026 Issue

are being commoditised, and that ReFuelEU does not require domestic production, making Europe an attractive target market for suppliers able to meet the stringent feedstock requirements. This commoditisation requires refiners not to forget the investment fundamentals: strong competitive positions are secured through supplying a local market processing an advantaged feedstock in an efficient, flexible facility. One size will certainly not fit all, but many sites deploying different technologies will be able to successfully adapt through the energy transition.

renewables to support stronger total demand for liquids and decarbonisation. • Trade policy around liquid renewable feedstocks, particularly in Asia, as this is a key source of UCO currently processed within Europe. • EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) policy and regional support for the adaptation to liquid renewables and synthetic fuels.

Alan Gelder alan.gelder@woodmac.com

Things to watch The world is increasingly interconnected, so uncertainties around economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies ripple through the oil value chain. There are several things we are watching with respect to the medium term, notably: • Global economic growth – could it be weaker than expected due to stalling investment in view of policy uncertainty, or does the US Supreme Court limit the potency of US tariffs as a geopolitical weapon, supporting a return to greater investment? • OPEC+ behaviour – does the group continue with its pragmatism, or does it decide to go for market share, or end production easing and return to deeper cuts to lift prices? • Russia/Ukraine conflict and associated Russian infrastructure outages. • The pace of the energy transition, particularly around vehicle fuel efficiency and electrification mandates. Slower electrification will require higher volumes of liquid

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