eSAF mandate and CO 2 required, EU targets
Bioethan (convent Biogas Biomass Pulp & pa Incinerat Exclu * Industr
CO production cost optimisation
50 60 70 30 40 20 10 80
110%
Biogenic from 2041
eSAF Mt CO eq Mt
100%
90%
35%
80%
10%
5%
1.2%
0
70%
2030
2035
2040
2050
60%
eSAF mandate and CO 2 required, EU targets
Bioethanol (conventional) Industry EU
CO production CO purity
50 60 70 80
5 Mta (50% captured)
100% (fermentation)
Biogenic from 2041
50%
DMX + steam eSAF Mt CO eq Mt
DMX + e -f uel
Biogas
24 Mta
With CHP*: 10% Reinjection: ~100%
Figure 3 E-fuel processes produce valuable steam, significantly reducing the biogenic CO2 extraction cost 20 10% 35% 10 30 40
Biomass to energy
31 Mta
8 -1 5%
Pulp & paper
62 Mta
10 - 20%
Incinerators Excluding cement/steel industry CO (can be partially biogenic) *CHP : cogeneration heat + electricity, biogas combustion 36 Mta 10%
5%
1.2%
0
2030
2035
2040
2050
for the reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) step, which combines CO₂ with purified electrolytic hydrogen to form CO‑rich syngas. This syngas is then processed through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and upgraded to produce e‑kerosene, e‑diesel, or other synthetic hydrocarbons. The RWGS and Fischer-Tropsch steps release recoverable heat as medium and high-pressure steam, which can be valued as regeneration heat for DMX, closing the thermal loop and reducing overall utility demand (see Figure 3 ). In the EU, e-fuel production will require eligible biogenic CO2 conversion by 2041 (see Figure 4 ). Therefore, reaching a final investment decision (FID) in an e-fuel project is deeply linked with the securitisation of the
CO₂ intake. A key challenge is that only a small share of the continent’s biogenic CO₂ is available as high‑purity fermentation CO₂ from bioethanol production. The majority of the produced biogenic CO₂ originates from biomass combustion or biogenic industrial processes (for example, biogas, biomass‑to‑energy, pulp and paper, and waste‑to‑energy), where it is emitted diluted in large flue gas streams with CO₂ purity typically in the 8-20% range. Since high‑purity CO₂ is scarce and costly, post‑combustion capture is essential to concentrate diluted CO₂ to synthesis‑grade quality for e‑fuel production. Integrating DMX technology with Axens e-fuel technology is the most effective way to maximise the profitability of current and future industrial projects aligned with European ambitions. This integration provides access to the largest sources of biogenic CO₂ while minimising energy consumption, a critical factor for project internal rate of return (IRR) and sustainability criteria (see Figure 5 ). Axens offers a complete end-to-end solution, including DMX CO₂ capture, CO₂ conditioning, H₂ purification, syngas production, Fischer- Tropsch synthesis under its GASEL™ licence, and final product upgrading with seamless thermal and material integration throughout the entire process (see Figure 6 ). The outcome is an Figure 4 EU ambitions require large biogenic CO2 volume, mainly available in diluted flue gases
100%
Integration Raw CO cost
100%
95%
-5%
90%
-5%
84%
85%
-6%
80%
Increase Decrease Total
75%
70%
Base case
CO price - 50%
Electricity - 10%
C apex - 10%
Figure 5 Process integration and access to competitive CO 2 feedstocks have a very sensitive effect on e-fuel production cost, at a similar level to power Opex or Capex optimisation
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